Homebuyers in America are “get[ting] used to a new normal,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said Thursday.
That new normal: Mortgage rates between 6% and 7% which, as I’m always keen to remind my younger readers, is actually the same as the “old” normal. Money wasn’t always free. That’s a post-Lehman phenomenon. There’s nothing unreasonable about a 6.5% interest rate if what you’re proposing is to borrow half a million dollars over 30 years. The problem’s not the rate, the problem’s the price.
Anyway, Yun’s assessment came alongside an update on existing home sales, which rose more than expected in November. The 4.8% increase was the biggest jump since February and among the largest since the resale property market succumbed to a prolonged malaise.
November’s advance was the second consecutive, and the annualized pace — 4.15 million — was the briskest since March.
Yun went on to describe a market with “building momentum.” In addition to buyers acclimating themselves to the reality of higher rates, a robust labor market and improving inventories are a boon.
Still — and as the figure makes clear — it’s a very long road back for the resale property market, where inventory’s still relatively scarce thanks in part to the so-called “golden handcuffs” effect, as owners are reluctant to trade up if it means swapping a four- or five-handle mortgage for a six-handle.
The figure above’s a friendly reminder: The nation’s mortgage stock is overwhelmingly concentrated in rate buckets well below current market rates.
Compared to last year, sales of existing homes rose more than 6% in November, the most on a 12-month basis since June of 2021.
The median price, at $406,100, slipped further from record highs near $430,000, but nevertheless posted another YoY gain.
In fact, the 12-month price increase, at nearly 5%, was the largest since the spring buying season. It was the 17th consecutive annual gain.
Yun suggested the sheer amount of money minted by the post-pandemic housing boom might itself serve to unlock some supply.
“Existing homeowners are capitalizing on the collective $15 trillion rise in housing equity over the past four years to look for homes better suited to their changing life circumstances,” he remarked.





New home sales also beat expects in Nov, months supply ticked down a bit.