The biggest part of the world’s largest economy expanded at the brisket pace since October of 2021 early this month, underscoring, perhaps, the notion that the fabled “animal spirits” are indeed running amok post-election.
At 58.5, the flash read on S&P Global’s services sector gauge for the US was positively searing. Consensus expected a moderation from the prior month to 55.8.
Context is important: The update comes hot (literally) on the heels of a comparatively lackluster read on ISM services for November. Apparently — and with allowances for the fact that ISM and S&P Global’s surveys rarely agree — the mood improved rather dramatically.
“Business is booming in the US services economy, where output is growing at the sharpest rate since the reopening from COVID lockdowns in 2021,” S&P Global’s Chris Williamson said Monday.
Not surprisingly, the factory gauge told a different story. The flash read on the manufacturing survey for December was just 48.3 versus 49.5 expected.
The juxtaposition’s quite glaring: America’s economy has arguably never been more bifurcated. Successive US administrations have promised to bring back factory jobs, to no obvious gain. Rhetoric aside, I wouldn’t expect any sort of true manufacturing renaissance over the next four years either.
Note that factory sentiment enjoyed a fillip just after the election as some extrapolated from Trump’s protectionism to better days ahead. The mood dimmed this month, though.
“Some of the high spirits seen after the election in the manufacturing sector have been checked over concerns surrounding tariffs and the potential impact on inflation resulting from the higher cost of imported materials,” Williamson remarked. (Imagine that, right?)
But that’s “ok” because… services! Again: They’re “booming.” And they make up three-quarters of the US economy, which in turn suggests the expansion’s continuing apace.
Indeed, overall growth in the US is running at its briskest rate in almost three years, according to Williamson.
Now cue Jerome Powell to explain how “restrictive” Fed policy still is.
Good to know that the animal spirits will be having brisket for Christmas.
Agree that the feds likely rate cut will be pouring gas on the fire. Trump will of course castigate them if they don’t cut rates.
Getting myself pumped for the wild ride. Seat belt fastened and hands inside the vehicle. Just cringing thinking about the crash to come.
I guess if homeownership is out of range, why not splurge on a Starbucks or UberEats?
I recently looked at the BLS data on expectations for job growth, by segment, from 2023 to 2033.
The top 4 categories, ranging from 46% down to 20% anticipated growth, were nurse practitioners, data scientists, health care managers and home health care aides.
Immediately followed by “substance abuse, behavioral disorder and mental health counselors”, which is anticipating 18.8% growth.
Oh joy.
Just an FYI to anyone who isn’t aware:
It looks like we will be crossing +1.5 degrees Celsius of global temperature increase by 2025-26.7%
And we are highly likely to cross the “do not cross” red line of +2.0 degrees Celsius by 2036.
Hotter air holds more moisture. 7% more per degree of temperature increase. Check out this graph: https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.bsky.social
Droughts followed by devastating rainfall and floods, killer heatwaves followed by frigid air escaping the Arctic – expect “natural” disasters to multiply in number and intensity every year from now on. Anyone have any ideas what kinds of jobs will be most in demand in a year-over-year unfolding Climate Apocalypse scenario?
correct link: https://bsky.app/profile/leonsimons.bsky.social/post/3ldelleh4hc2w
All the more reason for mass deportations of construction workers in the south and southwest US.
“The GAO reported that 25% of the single-family market in Atlanta – 71,832 homes — was held by corporate investors in 2022.” From GlobeSt.com
On a regular basis firms that have my email address send me notes telling me how much my house is worth. What they tell me is that the price has fallen continuously for two years. The tax collector is telling me the same story. I must be on an Island.