There’s a builder in The White House! There’s a builder in The White House!

Homebuilders across America were still feeling a little down on their luck this month, but things’ll be better soon. A lot better, according to the latest read on the NAHB’s forward-looking gauge.

The index of future sales, already on an upswing, pushed to 66 in data released Tuesday, the highest since April of 2022.

Needless to say, that’s in no small part attributable to the election and assumptions, misguided or not, about Donald Trump’s determination to cut red tape.

“While builders are expressing concerns that high interest rates, elevated construction costs and a lack of buildable lots continue to act as headwinds, they are also anticipating future regulatory relief in the aftermath of the election,” Carl Harris, a builder from Kansas currently serving as NAHB Chair, said.

Frankly, I expected an even better read on that gauge after last month’s increase. I say this all the time, and I’ll say it again today, after spending the morning chatting with a contractor in a half-finished new construction: Builders absolutely adore Trump, who they imagine is a kindred spirit (he’s not).

The NAHB headline — as distinct from the forward-looking gauge mentioned above — stuck at 46, unchanged from November. It actually undershot expectations for this month.

As the figure shows, the index has spent eight straight months below the line separating net optimism from pessimism.

Note that the NAHB’s resident economist Robert Dietz removed one of the four Fed cuts he expected for next year. “With inflation pressures still present, we have reduced [our] forecast from 100bps to 75bps,” Dietz said Tuesday, adding that “concerns over inflation risks will keep long-term interest rates, like mortgage rates, near current levels” looking ahead.

Would-be buyers, Dietz went on, can expect mortgage rates to loiter above 6% for the foreseeable future.

As an annoying reminder to anyone under, say, 45, 6% mortgage rates actually don’t count as “high” on a long lookback.

Meanwhile, Redfin’s Lily Katz gently noted that renters are far less likely than homeowners to enjoy a sense of community. “Less than half of US renters feel a sense of belonging in their neighborhood, compared with almost two-thirds of homeowners,” Katz wrote, in her latest, citing a Redfin-commissioned poll.

If there’s a silver lining for renters (and there’s really not), I suppose it’s that if current trends hold, their “community,” such as it is, will be a lot larger than the community of homeowners.