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Author: therealheisenberg

US Macro Outlook Darkens Further As Real Spending Craters, Core Inflation Stuck

February 28, 2025March 2, 2025

“Oh, Ey!” as the Sopranos cast might put it. Real personal spending in the US

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7 Comments on US Macro Outlook Darkens Further As Real Spending Craters, Core Inflation Stuck

Where’s The ‘Trump Put’?!

February 28, 2025March 1, 2025

“Nouveau bulls” are nervous and the S&P’s one meaningful weekly loss away from creating the

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6 Comments on Where’s The ‘Trump Put’?!

The State Of The AI Narrative Post-Earnings

February 27, 2025

Nvidia suffered a rocky — albeit not exactly disastrous — post-earnings trade on Thursday, when

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6 Comments on The State Of The AI Narrative Post-Earnings

Tariffs. Again.

February 27, 2025February 28, 2025

Metrics and benchmarks. You need them if you’re going to assess outcomes in the context

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21 Comments on Tariffs. Again.

Another Bad Omen In Tortured US Housing Market

February 27, 2025February 28, 2025

Bad news. More bad news. More more bad news. Pending home sales in the US

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3 Comments on Another Bad Omen In Tortured US Housing Market

US Jobless Claims Spike Amid DOGE Worries

February 27, 2025February 28, 2025

US jobless claims overshot meaningfully in Thursday’s update, a development which may underscore growing concerns

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Nvidia Beats, Guides For More Amid ‘Amazing’ Demand

February 26, 2025February 27, 2025

Records. Lots of them. That’s what Nvidia reported on Wednesday afternoon, following another lackluster session

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3 Comments on Nvidia Beats, Guides For More Amid ‘Amazing’ Demand

This Isn’t A Drill Anymore

February 26, 2025February 28, 2025

Late last year, I wrote about “anticipatory obedience” in the context of America’s tech moguls

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27 Comments on This Isn’t A Drill Anymore

Art Of The Steal

February 26, 2025February 27, 2025

Congratulations to Donald Trump. He successfully extorted a desperate, war-torn Ukraine for a huge share

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22 Comments on Art Of The Steal

New US Home Sales Crash In Latest Data Disappointment

February 26, 2025February 27, 2025

New US home sales plunged in January following back-to-back increases, Wednesday’s sole notable US macro

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About Those Leveraged ETFs…

February 25, 2025

“Gamblers.” That’s how Bloomberg described market participants who avail themselves of leveraged ETFs in a

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2 Comments on About Those Leveraged ETFs…

It’s The Job Losses, Not The Spending Cuts

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

Benchmark US yields were 4.80% or so on January 13. On Tuesday, following another lackluster

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10 Comments on It’s The Job Losses, Not The Spending Cuts

American ‘Golden Age’ Off To Rough Start As Consumer Confidence Plunges

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

Surprise! Confidence among US consumers fell off the map in February, as rampant policy uncertainty, tariff-related

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4 Comments on American ‘Golden Age’ Off To Rough Start As Consumer Confidence Plunges

Maybe Houses Should Be — Gasp! — A Depreciating Asset

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

The annual pace of US home price growth across 20 large metro areas picked up

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26 Comments on Maybe Houses Should Be — Gasp! — A Depreciating Asset

Chip Wars Rage

February 25, 2025February 26, 2025

The US is hell-bent on stymieing China’s semiconductor ambitions and thereby impeding one of Xi

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2 Comments on Chip Wars Rage

0DTEs Have Never Been More Prevalent

February 24, 2025February 24, 2025

Not so long ago, you could scarcely go a day without reading something, somewhere in

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3 Comments on 0DTEs Have Never Been More Prevalent

Consensus Gone Wrong?

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

Does the nascent “buy Europe” theme have any staying power? It depends. On whether the

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4 Comments on Consensus Gone Wrong?

Commencing US Growth Scare

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

The US macro narrative’s shifting. Fast. As discussed at some length Monday in “Traders Rush

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1 Comment on Commencing US Growth Scare

Traders Rush To Hedge Stock Crash Amid ‘Trump 2.0’ Policy Jitters

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

Market participants are waking up to an uncomfortable reality regarding the near-term domestic macro read-through

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14 Comments on Traders Rush To Hedge Stock Crash Amid ‘Trump 2.0’ Policy Jitters

Visible Hands

February 24, 2025February 25, 2025

Donald Trump can’t help himself. He has to escalate. I’d call it a compulsion, but

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5 Comments on Visible Hands

Alice In Deutschland

February 23, 2025February 24, 2025

Hotly-anticipated German election results offered few surprises if the ballot offered any at all. As

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8 Comments on Alice In Deutschland

Don’t Call It A Ceasefire

February 23, 2025February 24, 2025

I shouldn’t have to say this, but the Kremlin can’t be trusted to honor any

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13 Comments on Don’t Call It A Ceasefire

46 Long Months

February 23, 2025February 24, 2025

Is the Fed’s inflation goal actually achievable in the post-pandemic macro reality, defined as it

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6 Comments on 46 Long Months

Duck, Duck, Goose Step

February 22, 2025February 24, 2025

This was “the week that shook Europe,” according to Guardian chief Katharine Viner, who on Saturday

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31 Comments on Duck, Duck, Goose Step

Fed Hit With ‘Anything But That’ Moment In 30-Year High Inflation Expectations

February 21, 2025February 23, 2025

While previewing this week’s sparse US macro releases, I casually noted that the final read

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10 Comments on Fed Hit With ‘Anything But That’ Moment In 30-Year High Inflation Expectations

Biggest Home Sales Drop In Years Caps Dreadful US Data

February 21, 2025February 23, 2025

Friday wasn’t a good day for US macro data. In addition to the worst update

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6 Comments on Biggest Home Sales Drop In Years Caps Dreadful US Data

US Services Sector Crashes Into Contraction As Upbeat Mood ‘Evaporates’

February 21, 2025February 23, 2025

Don’t look now, but activity in the biggest part of the world’s largest economy just

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10 Comments on US Services Sector Crashes Into Contraction As Upbeat Mood ‘Evaporates’

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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