America’s experiencing a “crisis of confidence” and the US “exceptionalism” narrative needs a new catalyst.
Author: therealheisenberg
US Private Hiring Comes Up Roses In Rare Macro Reprieve
US equities (to say nothing of the Trump administration, assuming, perhaps misguidedly, they still care
2025’s Treasury Rally Is ‘Clear Nod To Stagflation’
Donald Trump and Scott Bessent wanted to get 10-year US Treasury yields down, and they
Traders Bet On Hard Landing As US Economy Freezes Over
The US economy’s slowing. I assume that’s obvious, but just in case, the evidence continues
Stagflation Arrives On US Factory Floor
Bad news. More of it. The marquee gauge of US factory activity flashed a hodgepodge
ECB Wins One Battle, Faces More
I dare say the ECB’s out of the woods on inflation, or damn near. I
The Great Depression
Sibyl Nicci used to tell me she didn’t want to live past 35 and
No Laughing Matter
As noted here on Sunday evening, there’s now begrudging acceptance among market participants and Wall
Be Careful, David!
Be careful, David! Donald Trump wants to keep morale up, and you’re not helping. For
Beginnings And Endings
Way back two months ago, I posed a question: “How ironic would it be if
US Jobs Report, ‘Liberation Day’ Loom With Traders On Edge
It’s jobs week in the US, and hiring probably held up in March. That’s the
People Are Starting To Notice…
They’re starting to notice. Markets. Economists. Wall Street “strategists.” The financial media. Officials responsible for
A Familiar Chart, A US Stock Exodus And A BIG Idea
I’ll let you in on a little secret: No one in this industry has anything
Household Mood In America Goes From Bad To ‘FML’
It’d be hard to conjure a worse inflation expectations-sentiment conjuncture than that on display earlier
What If Trump Cuts The Swap Lines?
In the editorial accompanying the March 27 Daily, I highlighted a media report which suggested
Fed Ponders Stagflation In Ugly Price, Spending Release
While previewing this week’s marquee US macro release, I noted that although the official consensus
Who’s Really Ready For A De-Globalized World?
Virtue signaling. I hear it a lot from some corners of Wall Street these days
‘Greedflation’ Lives On
If you’re wondering, corporate profits are still elevated. The legacy of so-called “greedflation” lives on.
Trust Issues
I was listening earlier this week to an episode of Bloomberg’s “Odd Lots” podcast. The
Contract Signings Limp Higher As US Housing Payments Hit New Record
If you’re the glass half-full type, you might say contract activity in America’s tortured housing
More ‘Correction Reflections’
If you’re immersed in the market narrative — and you are, otherwise you wouldn’t be
Tax The Cars!
Damn you “Tariff Man!” I’m laughing. It’s not funny, but then again it really is.
Trade Reciprocity Would Be ‘Very Tough For People’
“I’ll probably be more lenient than reciprocal,” Donald Trump said, during an interview with Newsmax.
S&P Could Crash 30% In Tariff Worst-Case, One Bank Warns
Count Barclays among major banks concerned about the read-through for equities of tariff uncertainty and
Bank Of England Still Has A Services Inflation Problem
Good news, albeit news no one cares about. Sorry, that’s insensitive. People in the UK
Are Record Stock Allocations A Canary?
Are elevated household stock “allocations” a canary? I put “allocations” in scare quotes because there’s
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