Long bonds or stocks? If you asked that question following the election in November, most
Author: therealheisenberg
Why Vol Didn’t Show Up For The ‘Trump Correction’
A few readers have asked, both in comments posted publicly and in emails, about the
Since 1993
With apologies for the frequency of expletives this week: Red f-cking alert. Five- to 10-year
Money Pours Into European Stocks As ‘US Exceptionalism’ Slams Into Reverse
It started with performance. Now it’s manifesting in flows. The reversal of the “US exceptionalism”
2000, 2008 And… 2025?
US equities are down 10% from record highs and 10-year US yields are 50bps off
Correction Arrives For US Stocks In $5 Trillion Rout
The S&P entered a correction on Thursday amid persistent trade war angst and, relatedly, the
Trump Has A Plan All Right. And It’s Pretty F-cking Evil.
I’ve said it over and over again: The Trump administration has no grand plan for
Bitter Little Pill
Right-wingers like Elon Musk are fond of a Matrix analogy for the world: You’ve got
Otherwise Favorable PPI Release May Bias Fed’s Favored Inflation Metric Higher
There was more incrementally good news on the US inflation front Thursday, when the BLS
What The PMs Are Thinking
Look, I’m a simple man. Not really. I’m actually so complicated that even I don’t
This Isn’t What You Want
If March 12, 2025, were any other post-pandemic CPI day in the US, stocks would’ve
Americans Learn The Path To Lower Mortgage Rates May Go Through Recession
As promised, the Trump administration’s bringing down borrowing costs for families. One recessionary data point
Cooling US Inflation Is Old News, But Good News
Well, what do you know? US inflation cooled considerably in February. That’s according to Wednesday’s
Bad Sequel
“Trump 2.0” has everything you want in a superfluous sequel: Same main character but with
‘Hard Landing’ Returns To Fore As Tariff ‘Chaos’ Shifts Macro Narrative
Who knows how it’ll ultimately shake out — any of it. But as Tuesday’s session
Trump Threatens To Collapse Canada’s Economy, Calls Border ‘Artificial Line’
First thing Tuesday morning, I mentioned, in passing, that three US states which import power
Data Suggests Plenty Of Open Jobs For Musk-Purged Bureaucrats
For what it’s worth on yet another day dominated by tariff headlines, US job openings
CEOs Implored To Keep The Faith As Trump Barrels America Toward Recession
“Well, Mr. President, you promised us an economic boom and we’re all just a little
Goldman Slashes US GDP Forecast On ‘Considerably More Adverse’ Tariff Policy
Don’t look now, but Goldman’s forecast for US economic growth is below blue-chip consensus all
Household Mood Worsens Dramatically In New Fed Poll
The good news is, inflation expectations in the new vintage of the NY Fed’s monthly
Scott Told Me So (Golden Age Loading)
We gotta get this sucker rebalanced! That’s the rallying cry on Wall Street, where “Because
‘You Can’t Look At The Stock Market’
Thankfully, it’s all part of the plan. That joke’s not going to get old, and
‘Extreme’ US Policies Risk ‘Ugly’ American Exceptionalism
Way back last month, JPMorgan described three types of US economic exceptionalism: “Good,” “bad” and
Traders Brace As US Inflation Updates Collide With Tariff Soap Opera
Investors and traders (two distinct classes of market participants, only one of which makes money
Hell’s Still Freezing Over
Don’t say it out loud (seriously, don’t, unless you want to get called in for
What Are We Even Talking About?
I don’t do emojis, nor memes and I’m almost illiterate when it comes to text
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