Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
Goldilocks And The Three Bears
"Structural."
You've probably heard that term bandied about a lot in recent days in the context of
Can’t it be both (or all three)? Right now, Polymarket is pricing an emergency Fed rate cut in 2025 at 28 cents. Seems like a good bet to me…
Like one of those huckster TV commercials, ‘wait, wait, there’s more’! Let’s not forget that the stable genius at the helm and his ketamined navigator have decided to stop funding pure science research, implode the administrative state and double down on burning coal. Apparently he figures this stuff out in between foot wedges on one of his golf properties, With Trump you can count on one thing, tomorrow is always crazier and worse than today.
So I was sitting in my cubicle today, and I realized ever since I started working, every single day of my life has been worse than the day before.
Peter Gibbons
Thought this quote was particularly apt since Janauary 20, 2025
Well the joke will be on us non-MAGAts when Mar-A-Lardo starts requiring that we all wear at least 15 pieces of Trump flair that we don’t own yet, and which has now doubled in price thanks to the punitive tariffs on China where all his dreck is made.
The pressure exerted on the President due to the recent stock market carnage may hearten new US adversaries, namely citizens of countries throughout the world. The President likely can holdout on trade tariffs lobbed by foreign countries because imports only comprise 11% of US GDP; however, 45% of US household assets are now held in equities and up to 33.4% of US equities (according to Gemini Ai) are held by foreigners who can fight back with their wallets. And, that does not count US debt held by foreigners – variously estimated to be 23% to 31%. Personally, as a citizen of the world, I have already started to unload US dollars, and stocks and forego all American trips and as may US products as possible.
Is it fair to ask ( and perhaps you have answered this many times before) but who does you article heading graphics?
I have a hard time not seeing what’s happening as structural, as in he’s re-structured global trade. In that context, no amount of balance sheet liquidity is going to overcome the systemic shock he’s created. Businesses needs to completely reinvent how they produce and deliver goods. Many will not be up to this challenge and will have to fold to preserve capital, especially small businesses.
When the two biggest economies in the world go to war, everyone suffers.