The White House on Tuesday afternoon said Donald Trump intended to go ahead with the full complement of tariffs on China, including the extra 50% he threatened out of the blue on Monday, come midnight.
And, as tipped here, that would in fact mean US tariffs on Chinese goods would rise to 104%, which is to say the cost of those goods to US importers would more than double.
This is an oversimplification, but unless you think everyone selling you something made in China is just going to eat that margin (i.e., accept a dramatic, overnight increase in their COGS, which in some cases will wipe out a meaningful portion of profits), get ready for higher prices.
I’m sure Howard Lutnick and Peter Navarro — who Elon Musk called “dumber than a sack of bricks” on Tuesday — will explain why that’s not the case, or if it is the case, why you should accept it as the inevitable price of American re-industrialization but… well, I guess I’m with Elon on this one.
Hilariously, Musk also lampooned Navarro’s nom de dunce. Peter, Elon sneered, “should ask the fake expert he invented, ‘Ron Vara.'”
As I said Monday, this is a clown show. Here we have Musk, an avowed Ketamine user with nearly half a trillion dollars and a learning disability, making fun of Navarro, an ex-con with an imaginary friend. And all in a competition for the affection of the convicted felon who half the country reelected to blow up the world.
Not surprisingly given the sheer, blatant delirium on display across Trumplandia, US equities pared a low-liquidity opening gap move to trade lower into the afternoon. Where they’ll ultimately close I haven’t the faintest. And don’t care, frankly. As noted here on Tuesday morning, the price action’s more or less random for the foreseeable future. (“Massive intraday reversal,” Marko Kolanovic remarked, around 2 PM in New York. “What a sh-tshow.”)
The figure’s simple enough. It shows a popular, news-based measure of global macro uncertainty with the VIX. You voted for it. Some of you, anyway.
Larry Summers who, say what you will, has been right far more often than he’s been wrong in recent years, said Tuesday it’s “more likely than not that we’re going to have a recession.” In that scenario, he went on to tell Bloomberg’s David Westin, we’ll “see an extra two million people unemployed” and household income losses will be at least $5,000 per family.
I don’t want to debate a counterfactual (because that’s pointless), but I think it’s entirely fair to suggest we wouldn’t be in the mess right now — that we’d all be free to enjoy some nice spring weather with equities loitering at or near all-time highs and our allies all around the world at relative ease — if the outcome in November went the other way.
Elections have consequences. And sometimes they’re bad.
As for the whole “It’ll be worth it in the end” narrative, I’m going to break with editorial precedent and policy to post a TikTok meme which probably emanated originally from China’s propaganda echo chamber. The comedic value far (far) outweighs all other concerns in this case.
I can’t wait. How about you?
This is all so damn retarded. Backstabbing Ukraine, hiking tariffs overnight and to the whole world at the same time. Then the question is: what will break the GOP / Camel’s back?
My guess, probably a huge increase in the 10-year. If it would reach 5-6% in a month for now, that would probably do it and force the GOP to intervene. Until that time, I’m afraid we’re stuck with this shit. It’s almost an alternate reality with all the garbage coming out of Navarro, etc.
I am rolling on the floor laughing my ass off. What a great video. The music gave it away as Chinese, could have put it to some country music and MAGA folks would drool over it.
Need to make one of overweight strawberry pickers in the field sweating their asses off.
The music is what ultimately compelled me to print it. It’s just so great.
Ha, exactly what I was thinking – I hadn’t read your comment before posting my own about picking strawberries, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see where this is all going.
Yeah, I don’t think people in America understand just how infeasible this is. Everything in my non-shoe / non-jeans closet is made in Spain, Italy, France, Portugal, the UK, Japan or right here in the good ol’ USA. So, jackets, shirts, sweaters, belts and hats, all made in one of those seven countries. There’s at least a quarter of a million dollars in that closet. Some of that’s the brand names, but not all of it. A lot of that difference is the country of origin and, more to the point, the huge premium you have to pay if you want an Italian seamstress to sew you a denim jacket instead of a Chinese teenager.
Quasi-luxury brands like Palm Angels and Moncler and Iceberg are made in places like Turkey and Romania and their prices are significantly lower than high luxury (all made in Italy or France), or even mid-luxury (a lot made in Italy, some made in Portugal). If I replaced all of my high luxury with mid-luxury, you’re probably talking about $100k vs $250k. If I went down to quasi-luxury, you’re probably talking $60k-$70k versus $250k. If I went and replaced my whole wardrobe with with clothes made in China, Vietnam and those sorts of places, I could probably do it for less than four thousand bucks.
Again, the difference isn’t just “a lot,” it’s astro-f-ckin-nomical. I mean, sure, we can make nice denim jackets in America that don’t cost a Dior jacket, but let me tell you, as a guy with a whole bunch of LA-made denim jackets, that ain’t cheap either. You’re still talking an enormous difference versus China or Vietnam — like, triple or quadruple or quintuple the price.
Bottom line: People — Trump voters — just don’t get this. They don’t understand it at all. It’s not doable. What he’s trying to do isn’t doable. Period. Full stop. It won’t work. People cannot afford it.
And not one single person who voted for Trump wants to be doing that sh*t work either.
Turn off your rage propaganda and think about what on-shoring these jobs actually looks like and ask yourself who the hell wants to be doing that work for the minimum wage?
NO ONE
As Dave Chappelle put it, “I wanna wear Nikes, not make them sh-ts.”
Let me give you folks a perfect, concrete example of what I’m talking about here. Anyone ever heard of Margaret Howell? The designer? No? That’s because she’s not famous, and her brand doesn’t count as haute couture. Not even close. Rather, she’s just a designer who makes great staple clothes in the UK. There’s nothing special about them. You’re not going to saunter into a room and have anyone ask, “Oh, is that the new Margaret Howell?!” Nobody’s even going to know you’re wearing anything that’s expensive. But guess what? It’s expensive. Why? Because it’s made in the UK and because it’s made by someone who cares, and because just in general, it’s quality clothing manufactured in a developed economy with an eye towards the sort of craftsmanship that team Trump imagines we can somehow achieve for mass market products without bankrupting consumers accustomed to globalization prices.
Here’s the Margaret Howell website—> https://www.margarethowell.co.uk/collections/men-ss25-new-arrivals
Go check it out. Hover over the items and have a look at the prices. And here’s the critical point: See how it kinda all looks like The Gap? These are your prices when The Gap is made in developed countries by people who care about craftsmanship. Now tell me how in God’s name this is supposed to work when the median household income in America is $80,000.
Add to that, the irony of this:
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025-04-06-after-the-bell-trump-slaps-50-tariff-on-trump-shirts/
Haha, that video is so on point. The idea that we’ll magically reverse decades of manufacturing losses and bring back middle class jobs is as laughable as trying to bring back the agricultural economy of the early 1800s. These simply aren’t middle class jobs anymore unless you have the education and skills to run an automated and computerized manufacturing line.
One of the many, many ironies in all this is that democrats have been investing in the areas where it actually makes sense to reshore manufacturing and jobs: semiconductors, infrastructure, and green energy. Good job, America! Instead of semiconductors, roads, and green energy, we get to pick our own strawberries, dig for coal, and sew clothes. #winning
Had the Soviets begun to cultivate their own Manchurian Candidate in the ’80’s and the Russian Federation continued the project to the present day, successfully inserting him in the White House, how would the result look any different from what we presently have with Donald J. Trump?
??
Sorry, that was supposed to be a checkmark, not a questionmark. Emoji-problem.
Imagine in 2018 thinking that in 2025 Elon Musk was going to tag “IFindRetards” in a post calling Peter Navarro a retarddo.
“I don’t want to debate a counterfactual (because that’s pointless), but I think it’s entirely fair to suggest we wouldn’t be in the mess right now — that we’d all be free to enjoy some nice spring weather with equities loitering at or near all-time highs and our allies all around the world at relative ease — if the outcome in November went the other way.”
+1.
Also, someone should pay to run that video non-stop as a commercial on Fox News for a few weeks.
That video is hilarious!
Hilarious.
H- I seriously believe that you are “one in a billion” in terms of intellect and wit combined with the ability to effectively communicate on daily geo politics and economics via the written word. I have yet to run across the other 7, but surely they must be out there. Somewhere.
Whatever you do, don’t trade down your closet. I only know of you from what you have disclosed to us over the years, but it is enough for me to know how much you deserve the happiness that closet brings you.
I can’t relate. I do, however, love wearing my favorite hooded rain jacket- which is a Uniqulo mens size XS (oversized on me). An absolutely smashing ochre color. 🙂
I know one of the other 7. He despises me and me him.
Is it Bill Murray? It’s Bill Murray isn’t it. I’m sure of it. I just read an interview with him, and it was all, “Let me tell you, that f#cking Heisenberg guy, if we ever cross paths again–” It’s all he would talk about.
As far as wit and wisdom, style and breadth, the late Christopher Hitchens is the closest analogue I can think of. Perhaps H. L. Mencken. Sorry, can’t come up with any living comparisons, but that’s probably for the best. I know you thought highly of Zoltan Poszar before he went off the de-dollarization deep-end (he should have just waited 3 years to air that take), but don’t really have an opinion on the guy myself.
Maybe two authoritarian leaders with name recognition pooled resources and bought $10B of $TRUMP crypto coin at launch and a third authoritarian figure with name recognition sold $10B of $TRUMP later that day. There aren’t but one or two other explanations for the demolition.
childlike and petulant, our leader.