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Another Bull Cuts S&P Forecast Citing ‘Crisis Of Confidence’ In America
America's experiencing a "crisis of confidence" and the US "exceptionalism" narrative needs a new ca
“It’s remarkable,” Kabra said, that the S&P isn’t down more”. The market doesn’t really fall until both happen: (1) everyone knows the fan is full of sht and (2) everyone knows that everyone knows it. Too many Trumpsiders still believe he’s not shoveling sht, that it’s really gold. So… not so remarkable in my mind.
Kabra’s optimism for the year end does seem remarkable however. I guess that could happen too, if Trump breaks enough things and markets tumble and plunge protection teams join forces to put a floor under things and new stimmies show up and who knows what could appear. Kabra might win the S&P target, but he’s not predicting how low it could before we get there.
For some reason, “Liberation Day” always puts me in mind of Bill Pullman’s “Independence Day” speech from the movie of the same title. I just can’t decide whom from the administration’s cast of motley characters to cast in Randy Quaid’s roll.
The expected pivot to tax cuts is playing out today. However, I think it is unlikely that Trump will pivot as quickly as he would like to. For one thing, it doesn’t seem like he knows what the tariff rates are going to be 2 hours before they are due to be announced. There are some conflicting numbers being “leaked”. The big obstacle is the inevitable reciprocal tariffs, which will make him mad. And there is the chance that some head of state will insult him, which would make him really mad. Then we start the “I double dog tariff you” thing all over again.
Well we had the Tesla Deal Days, and now it’s on to the Make America Wealthy Again Event. MAWAE?
If Obama left any of his Hawaiian dictionaries around the White House, Trump may have taken a peek.
MAWAE (m?’-w?’e), adj.
Hidden; secreted; stolen.
Kabra’s statement about tariffs that “once the negatives have played out” is doing a lot of work here. How long will it take to restructure supply chains? The negatives could take a long time to play out before “we expect confidence to return”.