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Trust Issues
I was listening earlier this week to an episode of Bloomberg's "Odd Lots" podcast. The topic was the
I don’t know if “never trust again” is accurate, since we already had four years of Trump and allies and trade partners went right back to trusting. I mean genuinely don’t know; I am not smart enough to understand why things would be different this time or not. Reasonable people should have seen he could be re-elected as president, but the status quo ante is extremely valuable to everyone so people would probably prefer to pretend this never happened if we survive it. Which on balance I guess we’ll find out? From an investment perspective I wonder if the risk of things continuing as usual and American institutions holding is underappreciated (in sentiment, I guess not in positioning)
I wonder if bombing the Houthis was just for the hell of it, because it seems this administration is extremely hostile to global trade, but also willing to bomb people if they interfere with shipping to Europe (?). Maybe he thinks he will send a bill to the EU later.
As an Australian it definitely feels different this time. Trump’s first term was largely seen as entertainment. This one feels malicious. A view that we can’t rely upon a consistent US policy and therefore need to look for alternative or broader arrangements with others, both for trade and militarily, is a common topic of conversation here. There’s a good chance it will now result in the upcoming federal election being won by the (incumbent) party which is considered to adopt a less US-focussed approach.
I think the damage is largely done already. In future people won’t be able to ignore that when it comes down to it not much really supports assumptions about reliance on the US and that they can disappear quickly depending on the whims of whatever leadership happens to be in place. Seems to be an isolationist approach and obvious that over the next couple of years we’ll see countries reducing their exposure to the US and putting in place wider arrangements with others who are in the same boat.
Yep. This comment is spot-on. I imagine this reader speaks for millions upon millions upon millions of people all around the world who are thinking, “Well, damn. What now?”
They were thinking “What now?” a few weeks ago. From the examples you gave, they have started the painful process of moving beyond the post-WWII order to whatever the new order will be. “Germany rearms.” That’s a headline for you. “Japan rearms” will be the next one. The new NATO will be an alliance of Western Europe, the UK, and Canada, with an increasingly closed and fortified border with the US. Not clear what the Pacific alliances will look like, but I imagine Japan, Korea, Australia and others might ally to try to form a block that is not simply a pawn between China and the US.
The hope among the sane is that we will have somewhat fair elections in 2026 and 2028, and that the increasingly disastrous brush with authoritarianism and a deeply-damaged economy will push a supermajority of Americans to vote to put the US back on a path of democracy, rule of law and institutional reform. Even if this could happen, it would take years of fence-mending to rebuild the international relationships that Trump has damaged.
I don’t think “years of fence-mending” will cover this damage. If Trump can be re-elected in the United States after two indictments, four years, and 34 felony counts, then the international community is quite right in isolating itself from us. If we consider it “ominous” that Germany re-arms 80 years after the end of WWII, then 80 years would be the minimum time to be apprehensive about US trustworthiness. It’s not just Trump here; it’s the people who elected him and the system that supports his current agenda. Those people and that system do not seem to be feeling any remorse, so it is unlikely that they will change. Our democratic system is broken. The ability to choose between a felon and a candidate selected by a political party, with unchecked power to change virtually all aspects of our daily lives, is not what I would call a democratic system of government. If it can happen here, it can happen anywhere. Hopefully, in addition to isolating against reliance on the US, other governments will review their own systems of checks and balances. The limitations of a purely representative system are on display. A system that involves more direct democracy on key issues such as national security, education, fiscal policy, and immigration is needed.
Tony the Tiger: They’re grrrreat!
J. D. Vance: Ha! If you ever checked your group chats, you’d know we had the CIA put truth serum in your Frosted Flakes. Now tell us, what do you really think?
Tony: They’re okay.
I can’t stop thinking about all the calories burned (not to mention the carbon footprint of the various negotiators) setting up the ICC, the UN, NATO, the WTO, NAFTA/USMCA and all the other “free” trade agreements, treaties and understandings, only to have them smashed by a venal toddler and dunked in the nearest solid gold toilet.
When I was younger, I often gave my friends’ toddlers a gift of either a pair of cymbals or a recorder as a joke with which they could torment their parents, at least until they were confiscated and/or returned to me with an unappreciative note. Well, someone needs to confiscate toddler Trump’s tariff cymbals.
A headline from a couple of days ago in the Nikkei. It’s actually profound to see Korea putting aside its lingering hatred of Japan (arising from Japan’s occupation of the country) and Japan inching away from its total distrust of China. First steps, but giant ones.
Oh, here’s the aforementioned headline:
“Trump’s threat to free trade brings China, Japan, South Korea closer
Beijing sees opportunity to drive wedge into Washington-led alliance”
Here comes another:
“Philippines widens search for allies as Trump fuels uncertainty”
I fail to see how any of this administration’s actions ends well for America or the world for that matter. I also fear for the millions of Americans looking to retire or are being forced into retirement in the coming year(s). I think markets have been reasonably well behaved amidst all of the tariff bluster and DOGE shenanigans the past few months, but I think that is about to change. Consumers are rightly cutting back amidst growing economic uncertainty and will continue to do so. Add on a likely growth spurt in inflation and slower corporate earnings and you have a recipe for a significant pullback in stock prices, possibly down to somewhere in the $4k range for the S&P. That will certainly catch the attention of those who currently are unaware or don’t care about the consequences of this administration. Or maybe tariffs get rolled back tomorrow. I don’t know. And market participants don’t know either.
Now imagine you are Harold and Marge–recently retired–and you have (had) a good chunk of your 401k in a 3X levered-up Mag-7 ETF fund. The Mag-7 were down about 20% at one point last week. A risky investment to be sure, but it is hardly fair that this sharp market downturn has been essentially self-inflicted, and perhaps is not even done yet. (It probably seemed like a great investment back in November!)
And then add of course that Elon is now looking into Social Security and Medicare, just to see, not that they would ever touch anything there. Does this administration not realize that older folks usually vote at a higher rate than any other demographic in America?
It’s time to realize that well-written, fact-checked articles like this don’t do sh**t. My thought is to fight “stupid with stupid”. These idiots probably think that AI is as mystical as God, so give this a whorl: Post the following prompt into ChatGPT and see what comes out:
—- snip ——
Write an essay comparing donald trump’s behavior with that of satan in the bible. Include inline biblical quotes, examples, and references for all responses. Place bible quotes in italics
Cover the following topics and add any others you see as relevant:
– greed
– disrespect of the poor.
– about betrayal of his direct followers.
– disrespect of women.
– mistreatment of minority races.
– mistreatment of foreign allies.
– trump and satan’s vanity, charisma, and good looks.
— end snip —
Practically ready to publish in my eye.
Pretty crazy stuff. I’d be scared to death if I wasn’t an atheist 😉 What’s really funny is just substitute “satan” with “Jesus” -> Bupkis!
One probably could write a great article about this if they were smarter than I and not so lazy. I picture an AI-generated old truck driving off into the desert at sunset with an bumper sticker “Trump IS Satan”.
Actually the result is better if the prompt is more neutral. Try this:
Write an essay comparing donald trump’s behavior with that of satan in the bible. Include inline biblical quotes, examples, and references for all responses. Place bible quotes in italics
Cover the following topics and add any others you see as relevant:
– greed
– treatment of the poor.
– betrayal of his direct followers.
– treatment of women.
– treatment of minority races.
– treatment of foreign allies.
– trump and satan’s vanity, charisma, and good looks.
Trusting America? As trust declines imagine the future of intelligence sharing with our allies. What allies, really, as old advisories are becoming confidants. Maybe Russia will start sharing intelligence with US, replace our allies, this would be a brilliant trust relationship since we both are untrustworthy (sarcasm). A complete breakdown in intelligence sharing would benefit who, accomplish what? The same person who wants everything confusing at home so his followers will look to their king for the truth? Toss in AI control of data (government and social) and a new world brew of confusion to build a bigger kingdom. Same playbook, bigger BS. Yes, I have trouble sleeping at night LOL.
It’s a relief knowing that at least Trump’s administration can do basic math.
I didn’t think they could even do that.
H-Man, he will go away but the detritus he will leave behind will take time to digest. The mid-terms may tell the tale on how fast that happens – a recent election in PA went Demo in a heavy Rep district. Wisconsin supreme court is up next. We need a leader who can mend a fence rather than knock it down.
My district! I was one of the < 500 vote margin. This district is so red that in the previous election (2022), the Republican ran unopposed. Trump carried it in ’24 by ~15%.
They know. Probably not a coincidence that the White House is now pushing for official proof of citizenship at the ballot box. With all the governmental cuts how many would make it through the process to get whatever proof may be required before the 2028 election cycle? Even if Federal requirements aren’t upheld at State level, many (most) red states will use the new Executive Order as a blueprint for State level changes to the voting laws.
Senior women will be disproportionally affected by this with maiden names on birth certificates not matching later married names and older non-digitized records of marriages/divorces/name changes being more difficult to retrieve. Surely just a coincidence that disenfranchising our Non-white Grandmothers would skew the vote further to the right…..
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/preserving-and-protecting-the-integrity-of-american-elections/
Trump always felt outside of the US “establishment”. I think all he wants to do is destroy it, I don’t think he cares and he surrounds himself by deeply flawed people who can’t and will not stop him. They are all in the ride together and I think the only way to stop the madness is mortality, a medical condition or jail. Trump has shown the fragility of democracy (Plato and Aristotle knew this and have been warning us over the millenia. We failed to use the safeguards that they both suggested), trust and entente cordiale and you have to wonder if there is a way back.
……..and you guys think there will be mid-terms and an election in 4 years? Hysterical! Time for the plan B to become plan A because plan A is not going to happen. Trump is busy getting the script from Orban, Erdogan, Putin, Kim et al.
Agreed, anyone who isn’t seriously questioning whether or not mid-terms will happen at this point isn’t paying attention.
Every time I hear them talking on CNBC and FOX, the company spokesman always first praise dear leader Trump and his brilliance. That must be rule 1.