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S&P Could Crash 30% In Tariff Worst-Case, One Bank Warns
Count Barclays among major banks concerned about the read-through for equities of tariff uncertainty
Their multiples don’t make sense to me- hard to see 18+ in bear case – that’d make it worse …uh oh
P/E N12M got to 15-16X in 2022. Pre-pandemic, 15-17X was typical.
How many angels can dance on the head of a pin? H – you are smart not to put out a number. My Favorite is Bank Credit Analyst at – if I remember correctly – 4200 in the fall and 4500 at year end. But they published that around the American Thanksgiving (post-election). They are independent. You are independent. I am independent. We 3 can tell the truth – although I have my dog taste-test my food. By the way, we could be 4500 in a month, but forecasting is beyond my pay grade.
The bearish forecast could quickly go south of 4000 if their bear forecast is 18.3X multiple. We will see just how many tariffs actually get implemented after so many head fakes, carveouts, and MAGA machismo.
I prefer your editorials poking fun at the strategists’ year-end targets.