“Still, when confronted with a choice of positioning for mean reversion or extremes to get more extreme, given the current level of market uncertainty I’ll choose the first one every time.”
Author: therealheisenberg
Guest Post: Is China Behind The Huge Spec Long Position In Crude?
“I don’t know about you, but if I were a Central Bank with too many U.S. dollars, I certainly would be selling the fiat currency and buying some real assets. And if you think about it, nothing is a better real asset than crude oil.”
“Lower For Longer”: Goldman Presents “The Shale Productivity Paradox” (Part Deux)
“Even if declines stay elevated, there is not room in our view for the market to handle “full capacity†from shale, OPEC and Top Projects at $55/bbl WTI without inventories moving well above the 5-year average on days of demand basis.”
One Trader Talks Homemade Italian And A “Tag Team Wrestling Exhibition”
“It’s yet another example of how the global narrative increasingly resembles a tag team wrestling exhibition. Or at least a heated he said, she said rumble.”
CNN: Russia May Have “Derogatory Info” On Trump Other Than The Prostitutes Thing
The source said the intercepted communications suggested to US intelligence that Russians believed “they had the ability to influence the administration through the derogatory information.”
“The Honeymoon Period Is Over” – Bullard Ain’t Buyin’ Trump And Other Overnight News
“Washington does have to deliver at some point and I think that is a concern going forward, whether the honeymoon period would end at some point and maybe the reality of American politics would settle in.”
“Between A Rock And A Hard Place” – China’s Latest Yuan Gambit
“Stuck between a rock and a hard place, China is likely to strengthen the yuan in order to lure foreign capital as the liquidity lifeline.”
Key Calls (Tuesday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
Memorial Day Satire: “Garrett Kushner? I Hardly Knew Her”
“He’s someone I would see around the office and who, I guess, was working for me.”
Does It Only Get Steeper From Here?
“Typically, excessive overweight implies subsequent sell off and vice versa. Spec positioning data, both levels and changes, is a contrarian indicator of subsequent rate changes.”
“Doug” Called Elizabeth Spiers A “Loser” – And Then It All Went Wrong For Doug
“But let’s be clear: he was talking about you, Doug.”
Guest Post: Why One Trader Is A “Big Bitcoin Bear”
Via Kevin Muir of “The Macro Tourist” fame We all know Dirty Harry’s viewpoint about
BofAML Has A New Carry Indicator – And It’s Approaching “Exuberant”
“The latest reading is at the 81st percentile, which has preceded a EM carry sell-off in the next four weeks 58% of the time over the 10 year backtested period.”
Guest Post: The Truth About Lies
“As a result, we had an ongoing process of integration of facts and fantasy, relativization of truth, and manufacturing of consensus. Donald Trump hasn’t come out of nowhere.”
Memorial Day Humor: Trump Twitter Edition
“…including all haters and losers”…
Tangled Christmas Lights: Why You Should Fear China’s Shadow Banking System
Have you ever tried to untangle a string of Christmas tree lights that you hastily stuffed into a box when you took the tree down the previous year?
“This Sort Of News” Is Bad, But “There’s A Wall Of Money Out There”
“Flows into EM assets persists despite this sort of news that you’d think would have the opposite impact.”
“But Then Who Would Care?”: Explaining The Business Of Being A Market Cynic
“If this whole thing truly does come apart at the seams, we’ll be out of business.”
2/3 Of Growth And Value Funds Are Beating Their Benchmark. Guess Why…
“The overall improvement in large-cap mutual fund YTD returns cannot be attributed to an increase in total fund active share versus their benchmarks.”
Everything You Need To Know For The Week Ahead
Well, it’s Sunday which means normally, you’d be thinking about Monday, but this weekend you
Angela Merkel, Leader Of The Free World, Just Gave Up On America
And just like that, Donald Trump has managed to alienate the last line of defense for Western democracy.
“Political Immunity” And Markets
“Technical factors and central bank liquidity have allowed markets to suspend disbelief.”
Guest Post: Guess What? Not All Government Borrowing Is Bad
“Pundits constantly shout about the dangers of governments borrowing too much. They make all sorts of scary charts, and, uniformly, put all borrowing in the same pile. Debt is bad. It will be our downfall. Stop borrowing immediately. Yadadada.”
Trump Gets Off Plane, Locks Self In Room, Has Twitter Meltdown
Plaxico. Just, “Plaxico.”
Dear America: “Something Is Not Right!”
In the middle of one night
Miss Clavel turned on the light
And said, “Something is not right!â€
What Tightening? China’s “Magic Money Turbocharger” Just Hit A Record
“Yet the fact that the PBOC is getting more bang for its yuan doesn’t say anything about the productivity of the uses to which the money is put”…
Saturday Satire: How To Prevent Body-Slamming Incidents
“Medical studies have shown that the costs associated with body-slamming injuries could be greatly reduced by putting the people who cause them in a place where they can do no harm to others.”
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