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Author: therealheisenberg

Putin Seeks Dollar Club Readmission, Secret Memo Says

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

Russia wants back in. To the club of US dollar users. There are two main

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5 Comments on Putin Seeks Dollar Club Readmission, Secret Memo Says

Corporate Bond Market Faces Sea Change In Hyper-Scaler Debt Spree

February 12, 2026February 14, 2026

If you own an equity index fund that tracks a cap-weighted, large-cap benchmark which doesn’t

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8 Comments on Corporate Bond Market Faces Sea Change In Hyper-Scaler Debt Spree

Home Sales Crash And Burn. Ice Storm Blamed

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

America’s foremost housing cheerleader is “disappointed.” It’s hard to blame him. At the (considerable) risk

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The American (Pipe) Dream

February 12, 2026February 13, 2026

Good news for America’s 45 million renter households: Thanks to lower mortgage rates and, secondarily,

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4 Comments on The American (Pipe) Dream

‘Stunning’ Stock Dispersion Echoes Lehman, Dot-Com Crash

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

If it feels to you like a lot’s happening across US equities in 2026 to

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3 Comments on ‘Stunning’ Stock Dispersion Echoes Lehman, Dot-Com Crash

New CBO Forecasts Suggest Little Hope For Bessent’s Fiscal Targets

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

Remember when Donald Trump and the GOP were going to cut the deficit, pay off

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6 Comments on New CBO Forecasts Suggest Little Hope For Bessent’s Fiscal Targets

China’s Still A Snowball

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

The Party in Beijing still has a lot of work to do warding off the

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3 Comments on China’s Still A Snowball

What To Make Of A Wild Jobs Report

February 11, 2026February 12, 2026

Somehow, the US economy added 130,000 jobs in January, a veritable miracle relative both to

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6 Comments on What To Make Of A Wild Jobs Report

Americans’ Credit Card Balance Hits $1.3 Trillion

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Congratulations to Americans: They managed to score new records both for overall credit card debt

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4 Comments on Americans’ Credit Card Balance Hits $1.3 Trillion

China’s ‘Powerful’ Yuan Quietly Strengthens Amid De-Dollarization Innuendo

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Xi Jinping wants a “powerful” currency. Just ask him. He’ll tell you. In January of

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US Employment Costs Are Still Falling

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Don’t look now, but US labor costs just decelerated again, where “again” means that for

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American Consumers Slam On The Brakes

February 10, 2026February 10, 2026

The US consumer’s stumbling. Or at least that was the message from the Commerce Department

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3 Comments on American Consumers Slam On The Brakes

Is Alphabet’s 100-Year Bond The Bell At The Top?

February 10, 2026February 11, 2026

Maybe the investment grade primary market will eventually balk at absorbing a deluge of big-tech

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4 Comments on Is Alphabet’s 100-Year Bond The Bell At The Top?

Will Job Losses Spoil America’s ‘Goldilocks Plus’ Economy?

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

Who’s bearish on the world’s largest economy? Overtly bearish, I mean? Nobody. The answer’s nobody.

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2 Comments on Will Job Losses Spoil America’s ‘Goldilocks Plus’ Economy?

The Biggest Buyer Of US Stocks Isn’t Going Away

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

Given how ubiquitous the hyper-scaler capex debate is in 2026, it’s probably dawned on a

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5 Comments on The Biggest Buyer Of US Stocks Isn’t Going Away

Xi Tells Chinese Banks To Cut US Treasury Exposure

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

It’s not just Danish pension operators. More often than not in recent years, the de-dollarization

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1 Comment on Xi Tells Chinese Banks To Cut US Treasury Exposure

In Japan, The Stocks Are Happy

February 9, 2026February 10, 2026

Spend it if you got it! Or hell, spend it even if you don’t. Lord

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3 Comments on In Japan, The Stocks Are Happy

America’s Tarnished Statistics Agency Takes Center Stage

February 8, 2026February 9, 2026

Barring another US government shutdown (don’t laugh: the situation inside the Beltway’s even more dysfunctional

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Takaichi Landslide Spotlights Japanese Assets Amid Spending Worries

February 8, 2026February 9, 2026

Sanae Takaichi’s gamble paid off. When Japan’s first female prime minister called a snap legislative

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Wall Street Thinks Main Street Might Win In 2026

February 7, 2026February 9, 2026

In August of 2020, amid a late-summer melt-up in high-flying US tech stocks (remember “The

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4 Comments on Wall Street Thinks Main Street Might Win In 2026

Weekly: The All-Crushing Claude

February 6, 2026February 9, 2026

This was the week Anthropic took the lead in the AI race. Or at least

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23 Comments on Weekly: The All-Crushing Claude

Big Tech Bets Its Balance Sheet On History’s Most Expensive Moonshot

February 6, 2026February 8, 2026

“Way back” Tuesday, I noted that street forecasts for full-year hyper-scaler spending on the AI

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3 Comments on Big Tech Bets Its Balance Sheet On History’s Most Expensive Moonshot

Fear The Steepener?

February 6, 2026February 7, 2026

Don’t fear the inversion, fear the steepener. Although a bit “inside baseball” vis-à-vis the casual

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Happy Or Sad? It Depends On The Size Of Your Portfolio

February 6, 2026February 8, 2026

The Trump administration enjoyed some additional, minor relief on the consumer sentiment front Friday, when

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Amazon’s $200 Billion Capex Guide May Scare Investors

February 5, 2026February 6, 2026

It was all about AWS when Amazon reported results after the bell on Wall Street

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11 Comments on Amazon’s $200 Billion Capex Guide May Scare Investors

McElligott Has Unified Theory For Bitcoin, SaaS Plunge, Gold Rally

February 5, 2026February 6, 2026

If you’re searching for a unified, Occam’s razor-friendly theory to explain gold’s meteoric rise over

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7 Comments on McElligott Has Unified Theory For Bitcoin, SaaS Plunge, Gold Rally

‘Trustless’ Bitcoin Confronts Another Confidence Crisis

February 5, 2026February 6, 2026

Money, like faith, is the product of the human imagination. — David McWilliams in The

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14 Comments on ‘Trustless’ Bitcoin Confronts Another Confidence Crisis

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Hopium Dealer on High Macro Drama
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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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