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Author: therealheisenberg

Terrible Trio Of US Labor Market Updates ‘Dims Expectations’

February 5, 2026February 6, 2026

All around bad. That’s an apt description of the trio of US labor market indicators

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4 Comments on Terrible Trio Of US Labor Market Updates ‘Dims Expectations’

White Collar Job Openings Evaporate In America

February 5, 2026February 5, 2026

The hits just keep comin’. Shortly after a trio of private-sector updates cast a pall

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Alphabet Posts Strong Growth In First Quarter As AI Leader

February 4, 2026February 5, 2026

The stakes were high and, thanks to the company’s furious comeback in the race to

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5 Comments on Alphabet Posts Strong Growth In First Quarter As AI Leader

How AI Went From Tailwind To Headwind For Stocks

February 4, 2026February 5, 2026

Earlier this week, I mentioned that forecasts for hyper-scaler capex in 2026 are up more

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1 Comment on How AI Went From Tailwind To Headwind For Stocks

‘Loan-ageddon’ Looms As SaaS Scare Menaces Private Credit

February 4, 2026February 5, 2026

“Well what the hell are we supposed to do with it?” “I dunno. Should’ve thought

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2 Comments on ‘Loan-ageddon’ Looms As SaaS Scare Menaces Private Credit

US Services Sector Steady, But Stagflation Lingers

February 4, 2026February 4, 2026

The US services sector’s generally fine. In case you harbored any doubts on that front.

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Trump Tariffs Triggered Dramatic Hiring Slowdown, New Data Shows

February 4, 2026February 5, 2026

Mind the revisions! Private sector hiring in the US was far slower than expected last

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1 Comment on Trump Tariffs Triggered Dramatic Hiring Slowdown, New Data Shows

Anthropic Threat Sparks ‘SaaSpocalypse’

February 3, 2026February 4, 2026

It won’t be painless. The AI revolution, I mean. I can’t say I’ve consulted the

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12 Comments on Anthropic Threat Sparks ‘SaaSpocalypse’

Tech Still Has An Oracle Problem

February 3, 2026February 4, 2026

Oracle’s down 50% from last year’s vertiginous highs. Did anyone else notice that? I’m not

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14 Comments on Tech Still Has An Oracle Problem

Gold And Silver Are More Meme Stocks Than Money

February 3, 2026February 4, 2026

I’ll say it again: Excessive volatility can negate store of value considerations when it comes

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6 Comments on Gold And Silver Are More Meme Stocks Than Money

Credibility Is America’s Real ‘Deficit Problem’

February 2, 2026February 4, 2026

It’s a good thing there’s no viable alternative to the dollar and US Treasurys, because

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5 Comments on Credibility Is America’s Real ‘Deficit Problem’

The Housing Market Is One Giant Antinomy

February 2, 2026February 3, 2026

There are two ways to describe the US housing market. One says this remains among

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Fine Print Throws Cold Water On Wild US Factory Rebound

February 2, 2026February 3, 2026

“We are so back.” Factory activity in America picked up dramatically at the beginning of

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2 Comments on Fine Print Throws Cold Water On Wild US Factory Rebound

Trick Question: How’s Earnings Season Going So Far?

February 2, 2026February 3, 2026

How’s earnings season going so far in the US? That’s a trick question. Don’t answer

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4 Comments on Trick Question: How’s Earnings Season Going So Far?

Precious Metals Carnage Spills Over, Bleeds Crowded Trades

February 2, 2026February 2, 2026

It got worse for precious metals on Monday if you can believe it. At one

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1 Comment on Precious Metals Carnage Spills Over, Bleeds Crowded Trades

What The Gold Bubble Says About The Nature Of Money

February 1, 2026February 2, 2026

What are the desirable characteristics of money? It’s a straightforward question, and it’s tempting to

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10 Comments on What The Gold Bubble Says About The Nature Of Money

US Jobs Trajectory Questioned Amid Partial Government Shutdown

February 1, 2026February 2, 2026

As of this moment, right now, it isn’t entirely clear what, if any, impact the

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Weekly: The Decade Dogma Died

January 31, 2026February 2, 2026

Over the four decades we associate with the onset and perpetuation of shareholder capitalism, hyper-globalization,

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12 Comments on Weekly: The Decade Dogma Died

Resignation

January 30, 2026January 30, 2026

The friend   I checked into the Perry Lane in downtown Savannah on December 5

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9 Comments on Resignation

For Gold, Silver: Black Friday

January 30, 2026February 2, 2026

Well, you can’t say they weren’t due for a pullback. By “they” I mean gold

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13 Comments on For Gold, Silver: Black Friday

Two Wild Charts Show Scope Of Gold Frenzy

January 30, 2026February 1, 2026

Gold’s “getting bubbly.” And, along with silver, it’s “nutty overbought.” The quotes are from BofA’s

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2 Comments on Two Wild Charts Show Scope Of Gold Frenzy

Kevin Warsh Wins World’s Worst Job

January 30, 2026February 1, 2026

When Kevin Warsh was last in the running for the big seat at the Fed,

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7 Comments on Kevin Warsh Wins World’s Worst Job

Don’t Look Now, But Wholesale Inflation’s Heating Up In America

January 30, 2026January 30, 2026

Don’t look now (because no one else will on a day when flashier headlines predominated),

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Apple Delivers Best Quarter In Years

January 29, 2026January 30, 2026

“Way” back in October, Tim Cook said iPhone sales and also total revenue at Apple

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4 Comments on Apple Delivers Best Quarter In Years

Riding The Bubbles

January 29, 2026January 31, 2026

There’s some nascent unwind risk emanating from the CTA universe. I realize that’s a little

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2 Comments on Riding The Bubbles

Trump’s Right About US Borrowing Costs. But He Misses The Irony

January 29, 2026February 1, 2026

You’ve heard it before, in some cases from me: There’s something inherently absurd about the

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7 Comments on Trump’s Right About US Borrowing Costs. But He Misses The Irony

Trump Again Considers Striking Iran After US Missile Demands Refused

January 29, 2026January 30, 2026

It’s been 38 years since Donald Trump published “The Art of the Deal,” a collaborative

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6 Comments on Trump Again Considers Striking Iran After US Missile Demands Refused

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Hopium Dealer on High Macro Drama
  • John3D on High Macro Drama
  • Abe Speckle on To Be Happy
  • T-Dog on For Treasurys, A Month To Remember. And Forget.

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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