Don’t look now, but new home sales in the US just posted their largest monthly decline since 2013.

I should immediately note that the data’s even more stale than usual (the Census Bureau’s still catching up from the shutdown) and this series is notoriously volatile.

Still, the near 18% decline from December to January sticks out like a sore thumb.

As the figure shows, we’re talking about a veritable collapse. There are only a handful of comparable declines in the entire history of this data set, which goes back to 1963.

The annual pace in January, at 587,000, was the slowest since October of 2022. The figures undershot every estimate from economists.

I assume weather played a role. Sales in the northeast fell almost 45%. But all excuses explanations aside, this was a very poor readout, particularly when you consider that i) rates were ~75bps lower in January than they were at the beginning of 2025, and ii) builders are cutting prices and offering generous incentives.

Of course, prices are still high. The median in January was $400,500, down 7% YoY, but still indicative of a down payment hurdle which, to a lot of GenZers is so high as to be laughable.

Remember: If you’re not well-off and don’t have existing home equity to roll, $80,000 cash is tough to come by.

The average price, which tends to be higher as luxury homes pull up the mean, slipped below half a million for the first time since last summer.

Earlier this week, the NAR said pending home sales ticked up in February, but rates are nearly a quarter point higher since then thanks to the war.

Now who’s ready for the spring buying season?