Donald Trump’s either “winding down” major combat operations in Iran or on the verge of escalating them materially.
Which depends on who you ask: Donald Trump or, well, Donald Trump. “Both” men weighed in on the likely next phase of the war in recent days.
As of this writing, the message “pinned” to the top of Trump’s social media feed is still the March 20 allusion to ending the conflict. “We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East,” Trump said late Friday.
A little over 24 hours later, Trump said he’ll “obliterate” Iran’s power plants, starting with the largest site, if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t open by 7:44 pm D.C. time on Monday.
I suppose you could argue those proclamations aren’t mutually exclusive, but on most interpretations, “winding down” military operations isn’t consistent with blowing up an adversary’s electric grid.
The regime in Tehran — and at this point it’s not even clear who that refers to — didn’t sound impressed Sunday. A spokesman for the military said desalination plants used by America’s Sunni allies in the region would be struck in the event Trump follows through on his power plant ultimatum.
Bagher Ghalibaf (who still seems to believe his position as an elected member of Iran’s civilian government insulates him from assassination) weighed in with a characteristically bombastic threat of his own.
“Immediately after the power plants in our country are targeted, the critical infrastructure, energy infrastructure and oil facilities throughout the region will be considered legitimate targets and will be destroyed in an irreversible manner,” Ghalibaf said Sunday, adding that “the price of oil will remain high for a long time.”
It’s my assessment — and, as usual, this isn’t an endorsement of political assassinations — that Ghalibaf will be targeted by the IDF sooner or later. In the wake of Ali Larijani’s assassination, and with Mojtaba Khamenei seeming more phantom than reality with each passing day, Ghalibaf has a very plausible claim on being Iran’s de facto leader.
For their part, Israeli military officials indicated the war’s only “halfway” over. The IDF’s actions in Lebanon now suggest Benjamin Netanyahu plans to conquer, and perhaps even claim territory, along the border.
Over the weekend, Israel Katz said Israel will destroy the Qassmiye bridge and other infrastructure linking the capital to the country’s south on the excuse the roads are being used as supply routes for Hezbollah.
The IDF’s also razing homes in border towns as part of an effort to create a “buffer zone.” Exactly no one’s under any delusions about that being a temporary arrangement. Again: Israel’s going to reoccupy south Lebanon. And probably stay.
Consider this: If you destroy all the bridges over the Litani River, then Hezbollah has no way to challenge an occupation — they won’t be able to get fighters and weapons to the south from their power base in the Beirut suburbs, which is anyway being bombed relentlessly.
The death toll in Lebanon’s now approaching that in Iran, and will almost surely exceed it soon. One person was killed on the Israeli side of the border over the weekend.
The total death toll in Israel from the war this month is 14 and climbing. Dozens were injured late Saturday when Iranian missiles slammed into Dimona and Arad, Israeli cities near the country’s main nuclear plant, which wasn’t damaged.
Netanyahu on Sunday beseeched everyone to join his Holy War. “If you want proof that Iran endangers the entire world, the last 48 hours have proved it,” he said, while touring the aftermath of the missile strikes in Arad. “They fired on Jerusalem right next to the holy sites of the three monotheistic faiths. It’s time to see leaders [in] the rest of the [world] join up.”
Maybe. Or maybe we should take a step back and ask ourselves if those three monotheistic faiths Netanyahu mentioned are leading our species to existential ruin.
Time to take a step back indeed. Likely not the only question to ponder.
Your last sentence neatly sums up my thoughts on this war and much else that’s wrong with our world today. As I read I was waiting for it and you delivered.
I believe the intentional bombing of civilian infrastructure (like the electrical grid and power plants) is a war crime under international law. Therefore, Trump would be issuing an illegal order if he commanded the military to attack said infrastructure.
So is shooting survivors and using a war plane disguised as a civilian plane. I don’t think Trump cares.
Unfortunately the administration has Google Maps muted and didn’t hear they’re about to miss the exit. Oil higher for longer!
Interested to hear other’s thoughts on how Bibi’s Holy War proclamation will play in the US.
I think it will play quite well in the US. It dovetails well (on a superficial level which is what one might expect from a country where > 50% read below a 6th grade level) with Hegseth’s American Crusade theme (and his tattoo). Throw in some Prosperity Christianity, greed, hate, and divisive media and it’s all good…
Bibi wants all to protect God‘s real estate. I think it would be a good time for God to show up and protect his own property.
I think God surveyed his real estate a few millennia ago and moved on to greener pastures.
Or he’s asleep
Two thoughts. First. No matter what Sir Donald of the Very Tiny Hands thinks, the man in charge of world at this moment is Prime Minister (Bibi) Netanyahu. The Iran ++ war will be over when he says it is and not a moment before. Nothing to hear from Putin, Xi or any others who might have a claim to a say, just Bibi in charge. Second. The S of H is full of mines, shore batteries etc. There is currently nothing Iran or the US can do to change that. So bluster about 7:44 tomorrow is just stupid. Someone should tell Trump to shut up for a couple of days and enlighten him and his goon squad the actual size of the corner into which we have been painted. It’s now officially huge. Maybe it’s time to call the Mosad and get this mouthy guy taken care of. They’ve done it before. They once left Gerald Bull on his own doorstep in the hallway of his apartment entrance during the Iran-Iraq war.
I don’t ingest much media, even alternative, these days, but I’m surprised that I haven’t seen any questioning of the link between our new oligarchs and their connection to Trump and how that may be pushing the needle on these bad decisions.
For example, Peter Thiel is a billionaire whose company basically controls the data that drives military decisions these days in the US. And Thiel, like Bannon, is frothing at the mouth about the antichrist and the ‘one world order’ that must be stopped. Thiel basically created Vance’s rise to power, so the connection is clear. And where is Bannon these days, anyway? Not likely sitting on a beach relaxing since he doesn’t have a West Wing office this time around. I don’t know much about the founders of Anduril, another new-tech war machine company, but they all came from Palantir, so I have my suspicions. (And it’s extra painful that they named their companies after Tolkien’s creations, which they clearly didn’t understand)
The world is getting scarier by the minute when these are the people shaping things from the shadows.