It could’ve been worse. A lot worse.
That’s Donald Trump’s characteristically tone-deaf message to American motorists after four weeks of war with Iran.
“[Oil prices] haven’t gone up as much as I thought, Scott, to be honest with you,” Trump mused, putting Bessent on the spot during a rambling Thursday cabinet meeting.
He said the same thing on Wednesday while regaling Republicans at a fundraising dinner: “I actually thought when I went on this ‘excursion’ as I call it — excursion into hell — it was going to be much worse.”
I don’t disagree with that assessment. It’s a small miracle that oil’s “just” ~$100 and the S&P’s still north of 6500 considering the momentous nature of Trump’s actions in the Mideast this month.
The problem is that Trump’s completely unconcerned with the suffering he’s causing at the pump for Americans already struggling to make ends meet.
On the EIA’s data, March saw the largest MoM increase in US gas prices in at least 35 years. Note that the chart above uses the monthly average. Hold that thought.
If this were anyone else, the audacity would be impossible to fathom. Here’s a US president who explicitly promised to keep America out of “endless regime change wars” and whose election platform relied heavily on appeals to households agonizing over inflation, presiding over the largest increase in gas prices since 1990, a spike directly attributable to a regime change war.
If, instead of using an average aggregation methodology, you calculate from end-of-period to end-of-period, the increase is simply staggering, as shown below.
“The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is up one dollar since last month [and] could reach $4/gallon in the coming days for the first time since August 2022,” the AAA said Thursday, adding that demand’s “also on the rise as spring break season continues, another factor in rising pump prices.”
No one else could get away with this politically in America. The egregiousness of the hypocrisy — the flagrant nature of the betrayal — is something only Trump would brave, and something he can sustain only because a third of Americans are in thrall to a cult.
This is one point to which the leadership in Tehran seems insufficiently attentive, and oh the irony: If anyone should know about the power of corrupt cults, it’s that regime.
“We are aware of what is happening in the paper oil market, including the firms hired to influence oil futures [and] we see the broader jawboning campaign,” Bagher Ghalibaf said. “But let’s see if they can turn that into actual fuel at the pump — or maybe even print gas molecules!” he went on to quip.
“They” don’t have to, Bagher. Because the ~one third of the US electorate who wholeheartedly supports Trump is just like the ~one third of the Iranian public which supports the regime: They’ll suspend disbelief in perpetuity out of blind allegiance to a demagogue.
As for the two thirds of Americans who don’t labor under such delusions, Trump and the GOP are working to disenfranchise them, or anyway suppress dissent such that the populace is unable to challenge its government. That too should sound familiar in Tehran.
So, if the regime’s hoping American democracy will save it — which is what Ghalibaf’s remarks about oil prices accidentally suggest — they may need to reconsider. Because as Trump put it on Wednesday while rallying the GOP troops, “I thought energy prices would go up higher, but it didn’t matter to me.”
I would expect the number of Trump supporters would shrink considerably in the event of an actual boots on the ground operation. Particularly if the strait isn’t forcibly opened in the early stages of such an operation.
American casualties along with what would surely be a surge in oil/product prices could be calamitous for the GOP come November. November is a long time to wait though if you’re an IRGC member trying to hold out against a full scale invasion.
Crazy on crazy violence. 1/3 of the Iranian population against 1/3 of USA population. what percentage of Isreal population?
When something is terrible that you’d promised would not happen, and it does happen, you say, “hey I thought it would be much worse. This isn’t too bad. Man up !”
Hurry November!
There will be no November.
I don’t think the war will still be going on in November (like 5% probability).
My guesses:
If the war ends right now with SoH open, by November the economic effects in the US may be below the attention threshold of MAGA. If the war continues for month(s), and/or if much more Gulf energy infrastructure is destroyed, and/or if the war ends with Iran controlling and tolling the SoH, then the economic effects will be significant in the US (and more so to ROW) in November.
If the war involves a meaningful ground campaign (more than some Special Forces raid), there is some US casualty level that MAGA won’t mind. E.g. US opens SoH and removes nuclear material with five casualties, they go shrug. After all, the US casualties so far have been higher and shrug abounds. I don’t know where the threshold not not shrug is – 50? 100? 500?
For what it is worth, betting markets are taking a dimming view of what this all means this for Trump.
Betting markets are never wrong. According to the people who run them. https://heisenbergreport.com/2025/11/30/bookkeepers/
“As for the two thirds of Americans who don’t labor under such delusions. . . .”
Great line.
I’ll note here again what I’ve suggested before: Trump doesn’t care about the upcoming midterm elections because he simply doesn’t plan on holding them. The only question I have is what “national emergency” will be used as the justification. Pretty wild to think of what they could cook up between now and then…
Agree….
I can only imagine how entertaining your inbox must be lately with messages from your readers who count themselves amongst that third.
Oh that stopped years ago. Once I transitioned to making sure every piece of content published here constitutes a fully-formed article where the humor’s understated and a semblance of nuanced (as opposed to out-and-out snark), the hate mail dried up almost entirely. Most of what I write is too much work for that one third to bother with. The Monthly Letters were a factor in blunting hate mail too. Once people really started to get a feel for the real me, even readers who don’t agree with my politics kinda got it: Like, “Oh, this guy’s something different than I thought.” I actually had a couple of people re-start their canceled subscriptions in 2023 when they read a couple of the Monthlies, not necessarily because they liked the Letters, but rather because once they read a few they realized they had a completely inaccurate picture of me in their heads.
When you put your business model evolution in those terms, it occurs to me that you are (part of) the product these days. As consumers we so often pay for a product, or we the receive service for free and understand we are the product. Yet here you are, uhh, capitalizing on your nostalgia (to avoid the obvious impolite metaphor that would denigrate sex workers) to deliver us a superior product to the geo-political-economic wonk next door.
Congratulations on breaking the trend, I suppose!
I wonder if Trump is going to nominate himself again for a Nobel Peace Prize? After all, he won the war in Iran bringing the world total peace! And he needs another one to match the one he was gifted.
Maybe they’ll put his picture on the 3 dollar bill?
No but as of today his signature is going to be on our money and as new gold piece. Pretty soon he’s going to try to make the Donald S. Trump States of America.
‘hmm, lucky you, a light beating’
If I’ve done my math correctly 300 million dollars more than before the war is being spent in the US daily for diesel fuel. Even those who don’t own an auto are effected by that. I recall the impact of fuel surcharges on a small business P/L statement.