War Dashes Spring Home Hopes For American Renters

The war with Iran couldn’t have come at a worse time for a US housing market struggling to find its footing.

On Wednesday, the MBA said the conflict pushed up borrowing costs for a third week, driving the average 30-year fixed to a six-month high.

That’s a gut punch with the spring buying season just around the corner. Trump’s dashing hopes among America’s 45 million rental “house”holds.

As the figure shows, rates rose 13bps over the last week, bringing the total increase since the start of the war to 34bps.

Purchase apps, which initially weathered the storm in a catch up to the prior month’s decline in financing costs, are beginning to succumb. The MBA’s purchase index slipped 5% in this week’s update. Refis receded again, falling 15% from the prior week. That index is now the lowest since January.

“The threat of higher-for-longer oil prices continued to keep Treasury yields elevated, and mortgage rates finished last week higher,” MBA VP Joel Kan sighed, in the editorial accompanying Wednesday’s release. “[H]igher rates, coupled with affordability constraints and economic uncertainty, pushed some potential homebuyers to the sidelines.”

There’s really no polite way to say this, so I won’t try: This is the polar opposite of what Trump promised late last year, when he pivoted hard on the domestic policy front towards addressing affordability, particularly in housing.

34bps might not sound like a lot, but it is. I’ll put it this way: If the math just barely worked for you on a home purchase before the war, it likely doesn’t work now.


 

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3 thoughts on “War Dashes Spring Home Hopes For American Renters

  1. The increase is even a bit higher in Europe. The overall rates are lower than in the US, so the increase is proportionally much higher and on an absolute level close to levels in 2022-2023 when the housing market bottomed after a decline of ca 20%.

    Housing prices haven’t gone down though and people are still overbidding like crazy. Wonder how long that lasts.

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