Told you so. I told you he was gonna call it done, or at least start moving in that direction.
Who knows if it’ll last, but US equities got a huge fillip on Monday when a “pleased” Donald Trump announced on TruthSocial that his envoys had a series of “very good and productive conversations” over the weekend with what remains of the regime in Tehran.
Accordingly, Trump won’t be bombing the nation’s power plants, as threatened on Saturday.
The specter of US strikes on the nation’s electricity grid sent Asian stocks tumbling to start the week. Were it not for Trump’s verbal intervention, US shares would’ve followed suit, perhaps pushing the S&P to the brink of a technical correction.
Instead, and assuming no new escalations, Monday’s session had the potential to reset the narrative. And to start tipping melt-up dominos.
Although Trump didn’t say the US will stop bombing Iran, he did say that “any and all” attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure are “postponed” for at least five days while talks continue. If that reprieve triggers a sustained rebound for US equities, the bid for downside protection could dry up, and SPX skew could flatten meaningfully.
Midway through last week, folks were back to buying VIX calls and the market headed into the weekend still over-hedged for a stock crash. If Trump continues to suggest that a “complete and total resolution” of US hostilities in the Mideast is on the cards, equity put strikes and VIX call strikes are going to move way OTM and in a helluva hurry.
Needless to say, this is all very tentative and Trump’s used negotiations as cover for surprise attacks before. But his social media message, delivered Monday in all-caps, strongly suggests that’s not where he wants to go next if he can avoid it.
I’ve spoken at some length over the past four weeks about Bagher Ghalibaf, the former IRGC official who’s been speaker of Iran’s legislature since May of 2020, when he took over the role from the recently-assassinated Ali Larijani.
As “far” back as mid-January, I suggested Ghalibaf could — and maybe should — try to run the country a quasi-elected, military-aligned, non-clergy hardliner, given what I (correctly, as it turns out) assessed was the imminent demise of Ali Khamenei and what remained of his inner circle.
It’s likely too late for the Ghalibaf gambit now. It’s my assessment that he’s unacceptable to Israel, and that as such, he’ll be assassinated by the IDF — irrespective of his ostensible immunity as an elected member of the country’s civilian government.
That aside, he’s in charge currently. If that’s too strong (and it probably is), we can say he’s the face and voice of a de facto military dictatorship governing in place of Mojtaba Khamenei who, according to US and Israeli officials who spoke to The Washington Post, is “wounded, isolated and not responding to messages being relayed to him.”
On Sunday afternoon, about 12 hours before Trump backed away from his weekend threat to strike Iran’s power plants, Ghalibaf warned that anyone who finances the US military budget is a “legitimate target” for the IRGC.
In case that wasn’t clear enough, he elaborated. “US Treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians’ blood,” Ghalibaf said. “Purchase them, and you purchase a strike on your headquarters and assets.” “We monitor your portfolios,” he went on. “This is your final notice.”
Funding secured!
Does that mean we have to wait until April 20 for this all to end?
A good life lesson. If you need an off ramp, make one up. Say there are talks. The other side will deny, but who really knows.
ANOTHER WIN !
Another win from the president’s “strategic ambiguity”.
The winners? The rote answer is foreign oil companies who Iran will be forced to admit. A more up-to-date answer is any company run by Kushner and MBS. Israeli participation is also a given. Mercantilism is back!!
The bleed out from the sustained elevetated vol of the pandemic took a long time to bleed out, leading to a sustained melt-up. It’s potentially a lot faster to cure a war than to cure a disease. This could get gappy.
Vanna is about to show us some letters.
Does anyone have any insights into “Strategic Council of Republicans Inside Iran” beyond the early March ‘The Atlantic’ mention? Or any other creditable opposition forces?
This article provides some history but not much current intell…
Who are the Iranian opposition and can they take on the regime?
https://share.google/gdLwZQ8m6jpdarWq2
Trump had said he wouldn’t reveal the Iranian contact, because “[I] don’t want him to be killed”. Then an Israel govt leaker outed Ghalibaf as the person in contact with the US.
Incidentally. Trump also said the SoH will be jointly controlled “by me” and “whoever the next Ayatollah is”, or something like that. So the US is already conceding on key issues?
In all the other TACO scenarios, someone has had to “play” Trump by massaging his ego and presenting him with a “win”. Not only is Iran not doing that, but Trump has made it nearly impossible for any of his erstwhile allied “Trump whisperers” to intercede on his behalf. I think Trump is showing remarkable restraint for a six-year-old (at least so far today).
From “TOTAL VICTORY” to “Total Resolution”. Give it another three weeks and it’ll be some other “total”.
I’d like to know the extent of insider trading based on Trump’s driving the market this way and that by his comments. One could, and I’m sure some have, make some serious money. You know Trump will continue driving the market up and down. If you just knew the day before.