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For The Islamic Republic, It’s All Over But The Crying
Iran would hate to have to pretend to shoot at US troops again, but they will if push comes to shove
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What is the afterparty for Iran, if the regime collapses? Is there any alternative leadership waiting in the wings, not descended from the Shah? Are there sectarian or other divisions that will pull the country into chaos or civil war? Will its near-fissile nuclear material be scattered and lost?
Bullish for oil in the short term, I’d think.
As far as I know, there is no real alternative leadership and the Pahlevis have no significant Iranian support. The Pahlevi Dynasty itself was nothing but a two generation British imposition without any “royal” or “noble” lineage (for those that ascribe to such things).
Chaos or civil war is likely. Iran is not ethnically homogenous and has 2-3 secession movements. The Kurds (who have started to join from Iraq), the Baluchis on the border with Pakistan and whatever is coming out of ISIS in Khorasan.
Hmm then maybe bullish for oil in the medium term. Not so bullish for nuclear non-proliferation.
I could very well be wrong but I’m not medium term bullish. The oil areas are in the Persian orbit and there’s an upcoming supply glut. I’m considering this situation as an exit opportunity before re-loading in ’27 but there’s a lot of moving parts in the world right now and oil is not going away.
The worst part about this situation is that Khamenei remained for way, way too long. He destroyed the country and the lives of most of its people.
I really don’t think oil prices are the main point here. You have a collapsing government murdering its own people in the streets, and the only “plan” seems to be for more violence and an ever growing humanitarian crisis. I mean, Iran is such a pariah state, what does foreign aid or assistance (perhaps “impulse” is a better term) even look like?
Iran has a very (very) long history of statehood, and its people are fully capable of intelligent self-government without, in my estimation, a lot of external help. They do have a civilian legislature, a civil service, an elite social class, academics and so on. The two biggest issues in my opinion are i) the lack of any coherent opposition / alternative to the regime, and ii) the unique nature of the IRGC.
On that latter point, the IRGC isn’t really something that can be molded into something it isn’t, let alone folded into a new, non-ideological, professionalized regular army. The IRGC is its own animal entirely and as noted in the article, it essentially is the government at this point. “Theocracy” doesn’t work as well as it used to to describe the regime. By now, it’s just Khamenei and the IRGC, and they’re locked in a kind of suicide pact in the event the populace rises up to overthrow them.
In the simplest terms, the IRGC is the military, yes, but first and foremost it’s… well, it’s the IRGC — it has its own unique identity separate and distinct from its identity as Iran’s military. I don’t see how you can erase that identity.
That doesn’t necessarily mean everyone in the IRGC wants to go down with the ship, but what it does mean is that in a new government that isn’t run by an IRGC strongman (i.e., in an entirely new setup where it’s not just a Maduro-style, “take the cannoli leave the regime,” scenario, to hijack, riff on and flip Clemenza’s most famous line), you’re going to have to build a new military from scratch, and figure out what to do with the missile arsenal and whatever’s left of the nuclear program. That’s going to be very challenging, to put it politely.
They are the corrupt descendants of the Revolutionay guard, right? As I recall, they “heroically” recruited tens of thousands of young men and boys to serve as canon fodder during the war with Iraq. Which was supported by the US back when Saddam Hussein was considered to be a srong ally of the US in the region.
I guess they claimed that their sacrifices were what protected the fledgling Islamic Republic, which continues to give them long-term legitmacy.
Thank you for expanding on the unique role of the IRGC in this situation. It will be very challenging indeed.
H-Man, I agree that regime change is in the cards. I am not optimistic about how long it will take in light of the fact the current regime has no problem in piling up the bodies. Can you imagine the toll on January 6 if the clerics were running the show?
The IRGC permeates every part of the Iranian economy, if you want a job or a contract you have to be in the IRGC. They farm out their thuggery to afghanis, Pakistanis etc who are probably doing the killing in Iran at the moment, I’m not sure how you separate IRGC from Iran. You don’t want an Iraqi situation where the Baath party was proscribed allowing Daesh to fill I the gaps. You have to think that the mullahs and IRGC have shipped out anything of any value so there has to be a very robust and earnest strategy to recover those stranded assets and return them.