US Retail Sales Solid, Wholesale Prices Benign

The Census Bureau finally got around to tallying US retail sales for November which is, you know, nice of them.

Nominal spending for the month rose 0.6%, according to Wednesday’s delayed release. That was better than expected. October’s figures were revised to show a slight decline.

This is old news, and it’ll be treated as such by market participants. That said, a solid control group print will help economists refine Q4 GDP predictions at a time when the Atlanta Fed’s popular “nowcast” points to an extremely brisk expansion.

The ex-autos print showed a 0.5% gain, ahead of consensus. 10 of 13 major categories rose.

The figures appeared to underscore the message from America’s largest banks, whose CEOs this week described the American consumer as “resilient.” It goes without saying that assessment admits of all the usual “K-shaped” caveats.

Meanwhile, the BLS released PPI figures for November. Wholesale price growth was a tame 0.2% that month following a 0.1% advance in October. The data showed a sharp bifurcation between goods and services, with energy driving a 0.9% increase in the former while the latter was flat.

Excluding food and energy, PPI was flat in November versus expectations for a 0.2% uptick. Between that and the unchanged read on the services gauge, this release can fairly be described as benign.

There’s not a lot of evidence to suggest anyone’s moving to aggressively pass on tariff costs to consumers. I don’t know if that’s fear of Trump or fear of lost market share / lower revenue. Either way, it’s good news for inflation even if it eventually manifests as margin contraction.

All in all, Wednesday’s second-tier US government macro releases were non-events.


 

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