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Author: therealheisenberg

Fait Accompli

May 9, 2024May 10, 2024

I was having a pretty hard time pretending to care about the Bank of England

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1 Comment on Fait Accompli

The Sky’s Falling

May 9, 2024May 10, 2024

Unfurl your “Sky Is Falling!” banners. Dredge up your best recession hyperbole. And most importantly,

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7 Comments on The Sky’s Falling

Before The Black Swan, A ‘Big Summer Rally’?

May 8, 2024May 9, 2024

Looking for another bullish narrative? Of course you are! Who isn’t? The financial media, for

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3 Comments on Before The Black Swan, A ‘Big Summer Rally’?

Rate Relief No Consolation For America’s Priced-Out Homeowner Hopefuls

May 8, 2024May 9, 2024

Guess what? The cost of financing half-million-dollar, wooden boxes over three decades fell appreciably last

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Bombs, Protests And Choices

May 8, 2024June 20, 2024

A “shot across the bow.” That’s how one US official, without apparent irony, described the

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16 Comments on Bombs, Protests And Choices

Zentner Clings To Rate-Cut Call As Fed Searches For Disinflation

May 8, 2024May 9, 2024

I harbor — how should I put this? — “reservations” about the usefulness of sell-side

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1 Comment on Zentner Clings To Rate-Cut Call As Fed Searches For Disinflation

Did Americans Just Put Away The Credit Cards?

May 7, 2024May 8, 2024

Is the incorrigible American spendthrift finally exhausted? I don’t know how many times I’ve posed

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5 Comments on Did Americans Just Put Away The Credit Cards?

Fleeting Vol Spike Drove $45 Billion In Mechanical Selling

May 7, 2024May 7, 2024

Things were suddenly interesting. And then, just as suddenly, they weren’t again. The fleeting selloff

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What Happened To The Selloff?

May 7, 2024May 20, 2024

Remember the equity correction? If not, don’t worry. You didn’t miss something. There wasn’t one.

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Stan Druckenmiller Takes Up Clout-Chasing In Semi-Retirement

May 7, 2024May 8, 2024

I don’t much care for Stan Druckenmiller. He’s smug. And not smug like I’m smug.

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12 Comments on Stan Druckenmiller Takes Up Clout-Chasing In Semi-Retirement

Deal Or No Deal

May 7, 2024May 8, 2024

Sometimes (more often than I’d like) I get grief for stating the obvious. That’s unfortunate.

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4 Comments on Deal Or No Deal

Potpourri

May 6, 2024May 6, 2024

I’d like to pretend this week’s going to be lively and entertaining for market observers,

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Who’s Afraid Of The Big, Bad Government?

May 6, 2024May 7, 2024

For US equities, domestic politics is an “unpriced” risk, according to Goldman. I spent some

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8 Comments on Who’s Afraid Of The Big, Bad Government?

Kolanovic, JPMorgan Still Skeptical. Of Everything

May 6, 2024May 7, 2024

Jerome Powell’s reluctance to countenance market speculation about a return to rate hikes is indicative

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1 Comment on Kolanovic, JPMorgan Still Skeptical. Of Everything

Between The Lines

May 6, 2024May 7, 2024

If you asked a committed bear what’s priced into equities in terms of risks, he

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10 Comments on Between The Lines

The Graveyard

May 6, 2024May 7, 2024

Picture this. You’re huddled with your children and extended family in a tent where you’ve

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4 Comments on The Graveyard

Progressive History X

May 5, 2024December 26, 2024

In August of 1912, while addressing the Convention of the National Progressive Party in Chicago,

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1 Comment on Progressive History X

An Early Word On US Election Tail Risks

May 5, 2024May 20, 2024

If you’re wondering about mispriced risk in equities, it’s worth asking how stocks might react

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8 Comments on An Early Word On US Election Tail Risks

Data Void Leaves Traders In Limbo

May 5, 2024May 6, 2024

There’s very little on offer in the way of fundamental macro inputs this week. In

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Warren Buffett Now Has Nearly $200 Billion. In Cash.

May 4, 2024May 6, 2024

It’s a Berkshire weekend. In fact, it’s a “Woodstock for Capitalists” weekend. On Saturday, Warren

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4 Comments on Warren Buffett Now Has Nearly $200 Billion. In Cash.

Rethinking The Repricing

May 3, 2024May 5, 2024

Market pricing for the Fed trajectory tends to overshoot. It was clear in January that

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2 Comments on Rethinking The Repricing

Yelling ‘Stagflation!’ In A Crowded Theater

May 3, 2024May 5, 2024

Don’t celebrate just yet. Investors were all set to bid up equities following a “Goldilocks”

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3 Comments on Yelling ‘Stagflation!’ In A Crowded Theater

Jobs Report: Goldilocks Is In The Eye Of The Beholder

May 3, 2024May 9, 2024

Goldilocks or bust. The US economy added 175,000 jobs in April, the BLS said Friday

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6 Comments on Jobs Report: Goldilocks Is In The Eye Of The Beholder

The ‘Big Picture’

May 3, 2024May 20, 2024

One popular strategist has it all figured out. Bonds and the dollar are in an

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16 Comments on The ‘Big Picture’

Apple Delivers In Stormy Seas

May 2, 2024May 3, 2024

What we can’t get in sales we’ll make up for with buybacks and payouts. That

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8 Comments on Apple Delivers In Stormy Seas

Erdogan Pulls Plug On Trade With Israel

May 2, 2024May 2, 2024

Israel Katz is indignant. Or irritable. Maybe (probably) both. “This is how a dictator behaves,”

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Out Of Gas

May 2, 2024May 3, 2024

One narrative, popular among contrarians of various sorts, says the Russian economy performed far better

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2 Comments on Out Of Gas

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  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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