I don’t much care for Stan Druckenmiller.
He’s smug. And not smug like I’m smug. He’s billionaire smug.
In May of 2021, when too many regular investors were making money in equities for Stan to happily countenance, he went on business television and called everyday people “monkeys.”
He’d say that’s inaccurate. And maybe it is. But only technically. Let’s take a trip down memory lane. It’ll be fun.
In May of 2020, as stocks were in the process of logging one of the most spectacular rallies in modern history, Druckenmiller said, in public, that the “risk-reward for equity is maybe as bad as I’ve seen it in my career.”
That was, with no exceptions, the worst high-profile (albeit unofficial) market prognostication I’ve seen in my “career.”
The chart also includes annotations for two Jeremy Grantham warnings which — how should I put this? — didn’t pan out.
Stan’s multitudinous stans gave him a pass. In fact, the Druckenmiller fan club never so much as mentions that unfortunate quasi-prediction, or if they do, they’re quick to note that Druckenmiller added a caveat: “The wild card is the Fed.”
But he put an asterisk on his asterisk, which is to say Druckenmiller intimated that the Fed wouldn’t be able to rescue the economy, nor stocks. “The consensus out there seems to be: ‘Don’t worry, the Fed has your back’,” he said, in the same 2020 remarks, before effectively ruling out a V-shaped recovery. “I just think [it’s] a fantasy,” he said. “I pray I’m wrong.”
Well, guess what? Druckenmiller’s prayer was answered! There was a V-shaped recovery. Allahu Akbar! But it didn’t always seem like Stan was pleased that God heard his appeal.
Two months later, in June of 2020, Druckenmiller confessed to CNBC that he “made all of 3% in the 40% rally.” “I missed a great opportunity here,” he conceded.
What a shame, right? He really needed that money! After all, he’s not a real billionaire. Mark Zuckerberg. He’s a billionaire. Elon Musk. He’s one too. MacKenzie Scott. She’s a real billionaire. I don’t know what Stan is.
Actually, I do. He’s an old curmudgeon. You can tell by his signature curmudgeonly smirk, which he employed three years ago while lampooning Neel Kashkari who, in an admittedly hapless attempt to justify the Fed’s policy stance, said this:
For my friends on Wall Street, and I have a lot of them, I hear from them all the time complaining about the Fed’s policies that are mucking up their trading strategies. I have zero sympathy — because there are still eight to 10 million Americans who want to work, who ought to be working.
That didn’t make any sense. Exactly nobody on Wall Street was complaining about QE and ZIRP. Just the opposite.
Druckenmiller let Neel have it. “I don’t know who Neel Kashkari’s talking about. I have six outside money managers who are up a lot more than me,” Stan told CNBC, in 2021, before indelicately noting that “a monkey could make money in this market.”
Suffice to say Druckenmiller wasn’t referring to his pet money managers with the “monkey” remark. And he damn sure wasn’t talking about himself. He was talking about you. And “Roaring Kitty.” And all the other homegamers whose lucrative meme stock exploits briefly made people like Stan look like rank amateurs.
I stopped covering Stan’s CNBC cameos years ago, just like I stopped covering Jeff Gundlach’s “Fast Money Halftime” interviews with network straight man and self-consecrated “judge” Scott Wapner.
The problem (my problem) is that I can’t pretend to care what these “legends” have to say. Contrary to popular belief, high finance isn’t my natural habitat. I found my way into it by accident. These aren’t my “legends.” They’re your legends. You’d pay a small fortune to have lunch with them. They’d have to pay me to have coffee, and I wouldn’t stay long.
Even if I could pretend to care what these guys have to say, I couldn’t pretend they’re going to say anything meaningful during their semi-annual complain-a-thons with Elmo, Abby Cadabby, Grover, The Judge, Mr. Snuffleupagus and the rest of the gang in Englewood Cliffs.
Notwithstanding my reluctance to waste my time (and, more importantly, yours) with “legend” banter, I did take a moment in November to satirize Stan’s “Bush & Bush“-esque fireside chat with Paul Tudor Jones at the Robin Hood conference. During that tittle-tattle, Druckenmiller said the following about Janet Yellen:
When rates were practically zero, every Tom, Dick, Harry and Mary in the United States refinanced their mortgage. Unfortunately, we had one entity that did not, and that was the US Treasury. I guess because political myopia or whatever, Janet Yellen was issuing two-years at 15bps when she could have issued 10-years at 70bps or 30-years at 180bps. I literally think if you go back to Alexander Hamilton, it was the biggest blunder in the history of the Treasury and I have no idea why she has not been called out on this. She has no right to still be in that job.
Needless to say, that was red meat for the finance Twitter crowd, most of whom have metamorphosed into raging right-wingers after more than a decade of unwitting self-indoctrination. The financial media loved it too. It was click manna from heaven.
As it turns out, though, it wasn’t that Yellen suffered from “political myopia or whatever.” It was that Stan suffered from not knowing what the f–k he was talking about. “Or whatever.”
Because, as one former deputy director of Treasury’s debt management office patiently explained a few days later, “thinking of the Treasury department as a corporate or household debt manager is a deeply flawed comparison” for a very long list of very important reasons. He went into laborious detail.
Fast forward six months and Druckenmiller doubled down on the Yellen clout-chasing in what, with apologies, feels like an effort to stay relevant in semi-retirement.
“Everybody seems to get it but Yellen, who just keeps spending and spending,” Druckenmiller said during his latest cameo on CNBC, this time for the network’s (aptly-named) “Squawk Box” program. “I think it’s dumb politically because it’s causing inflation and it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the average American is getting hurt by the inflation.”
I’ll grant that “average Americans” are getting hurt by inflation (read “The Divide” if you haven’t yet), but here’s the thing: Yellen doesn’t spend. Congress spends.
I don’t know what Stan’s hang up with Yellen is, but it’s quixotic. Or it’s propaganda. I can’t decide which. I’d like to think the former, but when he says, as he did Tuesday, that Yellen’s “using tricks” to “manipulate” the curve, he’s trafficking in inflammatory rhetoric, accidentally or not. Every single week, Wall Street strategists make the same general argument, only without the incendiary, conspiratorial tone.
Druckenmiller also went after Biden on Tuesday. And Bidenomics. “If I was a professor, I’d give him an ‘F,'” Stan sneered, before weighing in on what the economy might look like if Biden wins again in November.
“I’m more worried about stagflation, with all the government spending, with the way the Fed seems to have reignited financial conditions,” he mused. “I think the inflationary outcome could be there.”
What can I say? Hopefully Stan’s just as right about that as he was about stocks four years and 80% ago.



I don’t remember Mnuchin taking advantage of relatively low long term rates, either.
If my memory is incorrect, I am sure someone will let me know.
Years ago, while reading through a lot of bilge water of financial punditry, I discovered two guys I now read daily. The first I found on Seeking Alpha and was instantly aware I found someone good. When Musk bought Twitter, I closed that app forever. Now, somehow, in the silence of my office, and with only one friend on Discord, I’m doing better than ever. I haven’t watched CNBC since 2000, and quit watching Bloomberg about 2 years ago. Silence is an excellent teacher, and companion.
hi, care to share who is the other one (btw i got here through SA also)?
Alex Manzara at chartpoint.com. Daily credit thoughts from the Chicago pits.
Janet Yellen has forgotten more about central banking than Druckenmiller will ever know.
I subscribe to the HR for the concise and great coverage of markets and topics du jour, so when I get articles likes this with great humor and merciless commentary on the absurdity of our industry, it is just the cherry on top. This was a really fun read.
I mean, look: I’m not trying to suggest that Janet Yellen is some kind of epic hero deserving of everyone’s admiration, but this notion (popular among market observers) that guys like Stan and Jeff are looking out for Main Street and serving as guardians of the economy against nefarious plots hatched by a little old woman who’s barely 5 feet tall and Jerome Powell, a guy who can barely make it through a sentence without fumbling his words (despite being a successful lawyer) is silly as hell. I’m sure Stan’s a decent guy and all, but let’s face it: If he could get one over on you for $20, he would. He’s a hedge fund manager. It’s how they are. Sure, they’ll give $10 million to charity, but don’t mistake a tax write-off for kindness. These guys are ruthless by nature. It just grates on my nerves when they show up on business television perpetuating this idea that people like Yellen are out to get everybody.
FWIW, I covered the philanthropic sector for two-plus decades and never mistook a tax write-off for kindness.
You are right to stand up to a bully like Stan. The idea that he make money by deluding people into mistrusting the likes of Yellen and Powell is simply repugnant. While your chart above is illustrative in recent times, I will wager that Stan has never made a good public call. Is he taking the opposite trade from his statements?
Don’t get it confused: Druck is — you know — as big as it gets in his world with the exception of Dalio, and they’re not really the same type of investor. Stan made money every year for three straight decades. And, of course, he broke the BoE. If this is your world, he’s a god. Not to me. Because I don’t do heroes, and because I’ll forever be an outsider to this industry (I’m an outsider in general). But to people who are native to Wall Street, he’s a deity. And here, with Yellen, he’s not trying to make money by deluding anybody. That’s not my point. My point is just that he’s a blowhard and he gets on my nerves.
I am certain that I would learn a tremendous amount from speaking at length with, or working for, someone like Druckenmiller or his ilk. But I have seen that I learn nothing – l literally, as in averaging out the learning and dis-learning yields zero – from reading whatever Druckenmiller says in interviews. Since I’m not going to be speaking at length with or working for him, he’s pretty irrelevant to me. That has nothing to do with whether he is or is not one of the great investors. He just makes no difference to me.
I personally feel I learned a lot over the years from Stanley Druckenmiller. I certainly disagree with his politics. But without failure there is no path to success. He is one of hundreds of indicators I keep in mind. Don’t forget, most of the great traders are right 50% of the time. Richard Dennis told the turtles they should expect to be wrong 60% of the time….