Deal Or No Deal
Sometimes (more often than I'd like) I get grief for stating the obvious.
That's unfortunate. It's also odd. As far as stating things aloud, the obvious should have blanket immunity. Not so in my experience.
The obvious is admittedly uncomfortable in some contexts, the conduct of the war in Gaza being one of them. Stating the obvious as it relates to the war is an especially perilous endeavor when you're writing for public consumption.
But the other thing about the obvious is that it tends to
Makes for a sad commentary on the human condition. What do we bring to the table? I fear the parable of being kicked out of Eden may be a treatise about the insanity of man as a species.
Sadly your assessment of Netanyahu’s secondary concern over the hostages on a rare day when he is empathizing is likely true.
Genocide does not excuse genocide, also that statement does not make me anti-Semitic.
This is beginning to sound like Vietnam. Where success is measured in kill counts vs. minor losses. There is no objective other than “go kill people over there”. Goal posts will constantly be moved. We all remember (or can watch documentaries on) how Vietnam worked out.
It has to be obvious to most people in Israel that Bibi needs the war more than Israel at this point, it serves his #1 purpose, to remain in power, it is hard to reason at this point that continuing the war increases the country’s security or the chances of hostages returning home. I am certain this is obvious to the Biden administration, it is time the US stop supporting all aspects of Netanyahu’s war, it will benefit the people of Israel, save lives in Gaza and might even improve Biden’s fading chances of remaining in power himself.
I’d add three points to clarify what’s going on here:
The Israeli military views a takeover of the border crossing as a strategic victory, because it will give them a true “blockade” capability over the territory. Despite ill-informed media reports to the contrary, the enormous caches of Iranian weapons entering the territory clearly demonstrate there was no effective blockade before….but there now certainly will be. The strategic goal is that by taking control of the crossing from Hamas, the IDF will now control all aid flows and access points to Gaza and can prevent weapons smuggling through tunnels and other covert means. Timing wise, H is entirely correct–hawks wanted to action this plan before any ceasefire implementation made it untenable. Given the wars aims now include the abstract concepts (I.e. destruction of Hamas), I’d doubt we’ll ever see the Rafah crossing leave Israeli control.
(Despite their proclamations of shock/horror, Egypt/Saudis/potentially Qatar were all informed of this and likely in support behind closed doors)
Knesset comes back in session late May, and Netanyahu is then subject to a no-confidence vote. Israeli public opinion/IDF strategic opinion is deeply in support of a Rafah operation. If this is scuttled by a peace deal, Netanyahu’s government likely falls. Similar to the US (and formerly, Brazil)…it does not make for good policy when the person deciding the fate of a nation has to remain in power or face prison.
The Hamas acceptance of the ceasefire is BS, as is the Israeli charade of continuing the talks. Hamas didn’t accept the proposal presented by Egypt/etc, they accepted a version they edited converting intentionally vague language about permanent status into one where the war ends, and only a tiny percentage of hostages are released before ~6 weeks of ceasefire. If Gazan refugees move north, Israel withdraws military, and 6 weeks pass, the war is over and everyone knows it. From the perspective of Israeli right this is tantamount to surrender. On the other hand, Israel has already secured Rafah, Iran is unlikely to intervene further, and they have seen the Arab states /political left in US unable to mount effective political resistance. So they have no incentive for peace or to stop what they are doing.