Sometimes (more often than I’d like) I get grief for stating the obvious.
That’s unfortunate. It’s also odd. As far as stating things aloud, the obvious should have blanket immunity. Not so in my experience.
The obvious is admittedly uncomfortable in some contexts, the conduct of the war in Gaza being one of them. Stating the obvious as it relates to the war is an especially perilous endeavor when you’re writing for public consumption.
But the other thing about the obvious is that it tends to be unavoidable. And Benjamin Netanyahu obviously doesn’t care about the remaining Israeli hostages. It that’s too harsh, we can fairly suggest they’re a secondary concern on empathetic days. Netanyahu doesn’t have many of those.
Earlier this week, a few hours after the Israeli military dropped leaflets on eastern Rafah informing locals that if they don’t want to be killed with their families, they should get out of dodge (that’s not quite how the IDF put it, but it’s close), Hamas accepted the terms of a cease fire brokered by Egypt and Qatar.
Forget the specifics of the proposal. They don’t matter. Because Netanyahu’s war cabinet rejected the offer almost immediately. Limited air strikes on Rafah were the exclamation point. (“No.” Kaboom. “No!”)
As it turns out, Hamas informed negotiators on Monday that some of the hostages who’d be released in the first phase of a multi-stage cease fire were in fact already free. Where “free” means dead.
Specifically, Israel’s demands for the first hostage-for-prisoner exchange stipulated that Hamas would release 40 women, elderly men and anyone who’s sick. After a subterranean roll call, Hamas said that wasn’t feasible because, as The New York Times put it, the group “did not hold that many who fit the criteria,” and among those who did, some were dead. It was unclear whether the group put a number on the deceased.
This is macabre in the extreme. Obviously, Israel wants the bodies back. Hamas knows that, so the group’s storing the corpses in the tunnels with them. I can only assume they don’t have the proper equipment down there to preserve the bodies. So, they’re rotting. The bodies. Underground. In rooms adjoining the holed-up fighters, some of whom are likely also dead. These are catacombs.
Of course, everyone knew some (and quite possibly many) of the remaining captives were dead, but as the Times went on to say Tuesday, “the news that the first group of hostages to be released would include remains… will surely upset families who have been pressing the Israeli government to do more to free their loved ones.” Yes, “surely.”
Let’s not kid ourselves: Netanyahu probably could’ve secured the release of all the hostages (save perhaps any male soldiers Hamas might be holding), months ago. The excuse from the Israeli side’s always the same. Summarized, simplified and stylized, it goes like this: If we agree to a cease fire that’s too long in order to free as many of the hostages as we can, Hamas will “regroup” and “reconstitute.”
But “regroup” and “reconstitute” for what, exactly? These are militants, they aren’t a military. That’s an important distinction. The IDF currently occupies northern Gaza. With tanks. What could a “reconstituted” Hamas possibly accomplish strategically during a cease fire long, short or in-between? Are they going to draw up plans for a counteroffensive aimed at recapturing Gaza City? With what? The cavalry? Are they going to come up out of the ground in Rafah, commandeer the local donkey drove and ride them north playing Wagner through a boombox?
Netanyahu can have his hostages and eat Hamas too. All he has to do is agree to a cease fire stipulating their release then, once they’re home, fabricate a pretext to finish the job in Rafah. It’s not as if Hamas won’t give him one, and even if they don’t, since when does the IDF care about bad optics? They could just claim they intercepted radio chatter about a rocket attack and call that a reason to break the cease fire.
The problem for Netanyahu in bringing the hostages home is that once they’re free, public support for the war effort might wane, particularly given that the IDF’s reached the point of diminishing returns when it comes to the trade off between dismantling Hamas’s operational capacity and torpedoing Israel’s international reputation, which is collapsing under the weight of 35,000 dead Palestinians. Once the war’s over, what does Netanyahu have left politically? Not a lot.
It goes without saying (and this is me stating the obvious again) that the longer this continues, the more of the hostages will die. This looks, on some days, like Netanyahu’s employing the Keyser Soze home invasion strategy. (I won’t elaborate, but if you’ve seen The Usual Suspects, you know what I mean.)
Late Monday, after Israel rejected Hamas’s offer, protesters blocked streets and marched on Netanyahu’s official residence in Jerusalem carrying a banner that read, “The blood is on your hands.” On the Ayalon highway in Tel Aviv, demonstrators shouted, “Bibi is abandoning the hostages.”
Hours later, Israeli tanks took control of the Rafah border crossing, which the IDF said was being used for “terrorist purposes.” Four Israeli soldiers were killed Sunday in a mortar attack originating from the area.
In a statement Tuesday, the IDF said it killed “approximately 20 terrorists” in and around Rafah and dug up “three tunnel shafts.” No Israeli soldiers were injured in the operation.


Makes for a sad commentary on the human condition. What do we bring to the table? I fear the parable of being kicked out of Eden may be a treatise about the insanity of man as a species.
Sadly your assessment of Netanyahu’s secondary concern over the hostages on a rare day when he is empathizing is likely true.
Genocide does not excuse genocide, also that statement does not make me anti-Semitic.
This is beginning to sound like Vietnam. Where success is measured in kill counts vs. minor losses. There is no objective other than “go kill people over there”. Goal posts will constantly be moved. We all remember (or can watch documentaries on) how Vietnam worked out.
It has to be obvious to most people in Israel that Bibi needs the war more than Israel at this point, it serves his #1 purpose, to remain in power, it is hard to reason at this point that continuing the war increases the country’s security or the chances of hostages returning home. I am certain this is obvious to the Biden administration, it is time the US stop supporting all aspects of Netanyahu’s war, it will benefit the people of Israel, save lives in Gaza and might even improve Biden’s fading chances of remaining in power himself.
I’d add three points to clarify what’s going on here:
The Israeli military views a takeover of the border crossing as a strategic victory, because it will give them a true “blockade” capability over the territory. Despite ill-informed media reports to the contrary, the enormous caches of Iranian weapons entering the territory clearly demonstrate there was no effective blockade before….but there now certainly will be. The strategic goal is that by taking control of the crossing from Hamas, the IDF will now control all aid flows and access points to Gaza and can prevent weapons smuggling through tunnels and other covert means. Timing wise, H is entirely correct–hawks wanted to action this plan before any ceasefire implementation made it untenable. Given the wars aims now include the abstract concepts (I.e. destruction of Hamas), I’d doubt we’ll ever see the Rafah crossing leave Israeli control.
(Despite their proclamations of shock/horror, Egypt/Saudis/potentially Qatar were all informed of this and likely in support behind closed doors)
Knesset comes back in session late May, and Netanyahu is then subject to a no-confidence vote. Israeli public opinion/IDF strategic opinion is deeply in support of a Rafah operation. If this is scuttled by a peace deal, Netanyahu’s government likely falls. Similar to the US (and formerly, Brazil)…it does not make for good policy when the person deciding the fate of a nation has to remain in power or face prison.
The Hamas acceptance of the ceasefire is BS, as is the Israeli charade of continuing the talks. Hamas didn’t accept the proposal presented by Egypt/etc, they accepted a version they edited converting intentionally vague language about permanent status into one where the war ends, and only a tiny percentage of hostages are released before ~6 weeks of ceasefire. If Gazan refugees move north, Israel withdraws military, and 6 weeks pass, the war is over and everyone knows it. From the perspective of Israeli right this is tantamount to surrender. On the other hand, Israel has already secured Rafah, Iran is unlikely to intervene further, and they have seen the Arab states /political left in US unable to mount effective political resistance. So they have no incentive for peace or to stop what they are doing.