If Jerome Powell made anything clear during his May 1 press conference (and I’m not
Author: therealheisenberg
US Labor Costs Jump, Productivity Underwhelms In Bad Inflation Omen
In an incrementally discouraging development for US policymakers, the first estimate of Q1 labor productivity
Complicated Hypotheticals
It’ll likely take “longer than previously expected” for Fed officials to gain sufficient confidence in
Fed Laments ‘Lack Of Further Progress’ On Inflation, Unveils QT Taper
The Fed stayed camped at terminal for a sixth consecutive meeting on Wednesday, as expected.
Fed Gets Good News In JOLTS Release, But It’s Not Enough
The Fed caught a rare break ahead of the May FOMC decision when the BLS’s
Stagflation!
The marquee gauge of US factory activity slipped back below the threshold separating expansion from
Closely-Watched Treasury QRA Produces No Real Surprises
The Treasury refunding announcement came and went without apparent incident on Wednesday, when coupons were
US Labor Market Bulletproof As Private Hiring Strong Again
Private sector employers in the US added nearly 200,000 jobs in April, ADP said Wednesday.
Mighty Dollar’s Win Streak Eyed As Fed Cuts Delayed
With the Fed likely to indicate that any rate cuts are a relatively distant prospect
Amazon Talks Up AWS Strength, AI As Overall Sales Growth Slows
Amazon reported Q1 sales that narrowly topped estimates and guided below consensus for current-quarter growth
There’s A Storm Coming, Mr. Wayne
Homes. People need them, but people can’t afford them. That rather unfortunate state of affairs,
Consumer Confidence Crumbles In Blow To Biden As Election Nears
Perceptions of the US economy darkened a third month in April pushing a key gauge
Nail In The Coffin: Hot Comp Costs Rule Out Fed Cuts
Bad news for doves: A key gauge of employment costs watched closely by Fed officials
Flood Of European Macro Data Is Giant Waste Of Time
Inflation in Europe was “stable” this month and the bloc’s economy managed a respectable growth
Parlor Game
“Markets and forecasters are now using two decimal points on the inflation data to decide
Treasury Surprises With Borrowing Estimate Overshoot
Market participants expecting high drama from Treasury’s financing estimate on Monday were left wanting. Headed
Marko Kolanovic Cautions Against Buying Stock Dips
Marko Kolanovic’s not buying it. Last week’s rebound in equities following a three-week swoon, I
‘Demand For Convexity Has Collapsed’
Blink and you missed it. For about a week, market participants showed some interest in
Elon Musk Figured It Out
A week ago, I said Elon Musk would “figure it out.” “It” was Tesla, and
Wilson, Kostin Flag Risk To Stocks From Unruly Rates
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson and Goldman’s David Kostin agree: Elevated rates are now an impediment
Traders Brace For Macro Tsunami In Fed Week
It’s one of “those” weeks on the US macro front. By that I mean the
What To Expect From The May FOMC Meeting
With rate cuts in the US now a second-half story if they’re still a 2024
The Coming Market Singularity
Carrying-on about the many perils of equity market concentration runs the risk of eliciting exhausted
So Much For The Selloff (Adaptation)
How worried should equity bulls be about the dramatic 2024 re-pricing across the US rates
What Do Americans Hate More Than Inflation?
“There’s more to it. It’s not that simple.” I say that to myself, despairingly, all
Fed Dodges Bullet In ‘Could’ve Been Worse’ Inflation Report
Personal spending was stronger than expected last month and core inflation remained stubborn, the last
Main Street Asks, ‘Why Save?’ While Wall Street Wonders, ‘Why Short?’
For the world’s largest economy, a “no landing” is far more likely at this point
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