Well this was a tedious fucking session.
Wednesday was supposed to be a “bigly” day, but instead the tax plan got delayed, the data was generally mixed, and everyone was put in the decidedly annoying position of having to stay at the desks until at least 2 to wait on a Fed decision that everyone knew would be the very definition of “boring.”
And it was – boring, that is. The message was “see you in December.” And don’t worry, this will “stabilize” around 2% over the “medium-term”:
Really the only question now is: “ok, well what happens after December?” As Bloomberg’s Ye Xie notes, “we won’t have an answer tomorrow, but we may at least have something to work with, with some clarity on the next Fed leadership and tax bill.”
Yes, “clarity.” Or maybe not, because you can bet whatever gets unveiled in terms of taxes on Thursday will be anything but “clear” and while there’s a certain sense in which knowing who the Fed Chair is going to be is better than not knowing, remember that Powell is just status quo, so if you don’t feel like you have any clarity now, well then by definition you won’t feel any better with someone who is just going to ensure that “later” will approximate “now.” Got that? Great.
The dollar and yields did suggest a slightly hawkish interpretation of the statement, but you can’t divine anything from these moves:
Stocks were mixed with small-caps notably underperforming:
BofAML thinks the “melt-up” has already happened if what you’re talking about is risk-adjusted returns:
For his part, Strategas technical analyst Todd Sohn thinks the “melt-up” hasn’t in fact happened yet, but rather is just around the corner because… well… because this apparently:
CNBC is fired up (actual screengrab and yet somehow it’s the blogs that are posting the “clickbait”):
One thing you shouldn’t worry about, according to Ari Wald, technical strategist at Oppenheimer, is this:
Here’s what Wald told CNBC:
Investors always and constantly worry about a flatter yield curve, but historically the market continues to rally in these environments against a flatter curve. Historically it’s been the inverted curve that’s been the indicator … it could be that a flatter curve could continue for the next three years.
Famous last words, Ari.
European shares were up a fifth day – the best run in a month:
One word: “Goldlilocks”…
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) October 31, 2017
The Hang Seng is dreaming of 2007 and with M2 growth still elevated, it just might break out:
Today was the best day for Hong Kong since October 3, with Tencent leading the way.
Have a look at this Nikkei chart:
And speaking of absurd, this is completely ridiculous:
Although remember, we’re still a long way from where we need to be in order to spare John from a fate of “own dick eating”:
Commodities are helping (note: oil closed little changed after the EIA numbers didn’t live up to API. “We’ve had a strong run in oil prices. It’s time to get a little bit of a pull-back,” James Williams, president of London, Arkansas-based energy researcher WTRG Economics, told Bloomberg):
WTI did top $55 for the first time since January:
Oh, and here’s another record we’re on pace to break in 2017: