Chart Of The Day: Asset Prices In The Trump Era
See if you can spot what’s still hanging on for dear life at record highs/tights despite lackluster incoming data and central bank tightening…
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A Royal Shakeup, China’s Big Day Falls Flat, Crude Reality Bites
Ok, well for obvious reasons, the headlines overnight pretty much all revolved around: Saudi Arabia China Oil In Riyadh, Mohammed bin Salman consolidated still more power after replacing his cousin Muhammad bin Nayef as heir to the throne. It was, as quite a few in the media noted, an “abrupt” change. But bin Salman was already running defense,…
Chart Of The Day: Commodities Versus China
No further comment.
Before The Fed: China?! “An Illegal Siege” On Qatar! Crude Carnage. Oh, My.
Yeah, so this afternoon the Fed will almost surely hike and folks will be looking for answers to a whole lot of questions. The full preview is available here, but one thing you should note is that traders will be watching CPI and retail sales first and indeed, those prints may end up dictating the…
“Oil Is The Fed’s Canary”: Is The Fed “Sleepwalking Into A Policy Mistake”?
“…never have forward expectations been so dovish (Chart 4), inflation break-evens been so beaten down, and data surprises been so negative ahead of a Fed hike in this cycle.”
Guest Post: “I Love Catching Falling Knives – Don’t Tell My Kids”
“I haven’t seen that much red since I pulled up Fannie Mae’s portfolio in the depths of the great financial crisis. Those are some f’ugly numbers.”
Do You Know What Your Problem Is? You’re Addicted To China.
“It has been almost 20 years since the US had the same relative contribution GDP growth that China has today.”
Don’t Forget That Iron Ore Crashed Last Night…
So last night Moody’s downgraded China for the first time since 1989. China was pissed. The reaction in regional equities and FX ended up being muted thanks in no small part to what certainly looked like a late session intervention by Beijing’s infamous “national team.” But one thing you should note is the reaction in…
Chinese Stocks Stage Hilarious Comeback After “Absolutely Groundless” Moody’s Downgrade
It’s all fun and games until someone gets downgraded. So last night, Moody’s handed China its first downgrade since 1989, a move that reflected growing incredulity with the notion that Beijing will somehow be able to simultaneously deleverage and maintain the current pace of economic growth. China, of course, wasn’t happy. The Ministry of Finance called…
“Thy Orb And Thy Staff They Comfort Me”: “Risk Feels A Bit Better Today!”
Yea, though we walk through the valley of the shadow of death, we will fear no geopolitical tail risk: for Donald Trump art with us; thy orb and thy staff they comfort me…
Oil And China. Because What Else, Right?
It’s Monday. Hell yeah! Let’s start in China, because… well… because where else, right? We got some data overnight, and it all missed, although not dramatically. Here’s the quick rundown: CHINA APRIL RETAIL SALES RISE 10.7% Y/Y; EST. 10.8% CHINA APRIL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 6.5% Y/Y; EST. 7.0% CHINA JAN.-APRIL FIXED INVESTMENT RISES 8.9% Y/Y;…
Traders & Producers “Congregated” To Talk Metals Misery: Here’s What They Said
Goldman chats with some folks in Hong Kong…
Goldman Has A Simple Message For You About Retail And Metals
If there’s two places you haven’t wanted to be of late it’s retail and metals.
“This Does Not Bode Well”: One Bank Warns “The Chinese Monetary Put Is In Reverse”
“This does not bode well for commodities, and is particularly true for the China-sensitive commodities of copper and iron ore.”
“Insidious” Conditions, “Destroyers Of Animal Spirits” & Why It’s All “Nonsense”
“In a world where it’s been all right to resist, it’s the antithesis of impetus for change and a destroyer of animal spirits.”
