Iron Ore Futs Surge To $70/Ton

To whom it may concern…

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Goldman Commodities Mea Culpa: ‘We Didn’t Understand The Fundamental Rules Of Investing’

“…more importantly, the fundamental rules of commodity investing have been underappreciated both by us and by market participants.”

Nickels In The Urinals: Don’t Jinx The Wheat Trade

“The Market Gods are a fickle bunch. Even if you avoid nickels in the urinals, they still seem to find ways to get you.”

One Trader Doesn’t Like Your “Hyperbole,” But He’ll Let It Slide As Long As You Don’t Mistake A Passing Pigeon For “Paree”

“It’s been a week filled with hyperbole. Trial balloons dressed up as pre-commitments. A little volatility described in cataclysmic terms and compared to jarring historical market upsets.”

Chart Of The Day: Asset Prices In The Trump Era

See if you can spot what’s still hanging on for dear life at record highs/tights despite lackluster incoming data and central bank tightening…

A Royal Shakeup, China’s Big Day Falls Flat, Crude Reality Bites

Ok, well for obvious reasons, the headlines overnight pretty much all revolved around: Saudi Arabia China Oil In Riyadh, Mohammed bin Salman consolidated still more power after replacing his cousin Muhammad bin Nayef as heir to the throne. It was, as quite a few in the media noted, an “abrupt” change. But bin Salman was already running defense,…

Chart Of The Day: Commodities Versus China

No further comment.

Before The Fed: China?! “An Illegal Siege” On Qatar! Crude Carnage. Oh, My.

Yeah, so this afternoon the Fed will almost surely hike and folks will be looking for answers to a whole lot of questions. The full preview is available here, but one thing you should note is that traders will be watching CPI and retail sales first and indeed, those prints may end up dictating the…

“Oil Is The Fed’s Canary”: Is The Fed “Sleepwalking Into A Policy Mistake”?

“…never have forward expectations been so dovish (Chart 4), inflation break-evens been so beaten down, and data surprises been so negative ahead of a Fed hike in this cycle.”

Guest Post: “I Love Catching Falling Knives – Don’t Tell My Kids”

“I haven’t seen that much red since I pulled up Fannie Mae’s portfolio in the depths of the great financial crisis. Those are some f’ugly numbers.”

Don’t Forget That Iron Ore Crashed Last Night…

So last night Moody’s downgraded China for the first time since 1989. China was pissed. The reaction in regional equities and FX ended up being muted thanks in no small part to what certainly looked like a late session intervention by Beijing’s infamous “national team.” But one thing you should note is the reaction in…

Chinese Stocks Stage Hilarious Comeback After “Absolutely Groundless” Moody’s Downgrade

It’s all fun and games until someone gets downgraded. So last night, Moody’s handed China its first downgrade since 1989, a move that reflected growing incredulity with the notion that Beijing will somehow be able to simultaneously deleverage and maintain the current pace of economic growth. China, of course, wasn’t happy. The Ministry of Finance called…

“Thy Orb And Thy Staff They Comfort Me”: “Risk Feels A Bit Better Today!”

Yea, though we walk through the valley of the shadow of death, we will fear no geopolitical tail risk: for Donald Trump art with us; thy orb and thy staff they comfort me…

Oil And China. Because What Else, Right?

It’s Monday. Hell yeah! Let’s start in China, because… well… because where else, right? We got some data overnight, and it all missed, although not dramatically. Here’s the quick rundown: CHINA APRIL RETAIL SALES RISE 10.7% Y/Y; EST. 10.8% CHINA APRIL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 6.5% Y/Y; EST. 7.0% CHINA JAN.-APRIL FIXED INVESTMENT RISES 8.9% Y/Y;…

Traders & Producers “Congregated” To Talk Metals Misery: Here’s What They Said

Goldman chats with some folks in Hong Kong…