If you’re wondering what you need to know about the GOP tax plan – both in terms of whether it’s likely to pass and also in terms of what it’s likely to mean for the economy if, by some miracle, it does pass – just ask Sonny Black….
That’s right. You’ve got to kick up to the government and only two things are certain in life: death and taxes. And how you’ll know you’ve died and been sent to hell is when you’re “here in the same bar with all the same fucking Republicans, talking about the same fucking scams, that’ll never amount to nothin’.” Now flip over a damn card table.
Nevertheless, yields and the dollar are convinced that this will indeed “amount to somethin.'” For its part, the greenback rose against all its G-10 peers except for the pound on Friday, on the way to a weekly gain of some 0.7%. The recent dollar uptrend has now resumed after taking a week off :
The drama around the Fed is still ongoing and Friday was chock-full of conflicting headlines. To wit:
- SANDERS: TRUMP’S TIME WITH YELLEN KEY REASON HE’S WARMED TO HER
- SANDERS SAYS SEVERAL OTHER OPTIONS REMAIN ON TABLE FOR FED
- SANDERS: PAIRING TAYLOR, POWELL AT FED IS `UNDER CONSIDERATION
- TRUMP SAYS BRINGING TAYLOR, POWELL TO FED TOGETHER AN OPTION
- TRUMP ON FOX BUSINESS: TAYLOR, POWELL BOTH ‘VERY TALENTED’
- YELLEN IS SAID TO NOT BE MEETING WITH TRUMP TODAY
- YELLEN IS SAID TO BE BACK AT WHITE HOUSE, PERSON FAMILIAR SAYS
- YELLEN IS SAID TO BE AT WHITE HOUSE FOR MEETING WITH GARY COHN
Of course it makes no sense to speculate where that means citing “people familiar with the President’s thinking” because when it comes to Trump and his “thinking,” here’s what he told Fox today when asked about Powell and Taylor teaming up:
It is in my thinking, and I have a couple of others things in my thinking.
Got that? “Taylor or Powell?” “What’d I say, did I say Taylor?” “No, you said Powell.” “Sometimes you don’t make no fuckin’ sense Donnie”…
Something else which “don’t make no fuckin’ sense”:
For our part on the Fed debate, we’re still sticking with dark horse candidate Krusty the Clown:
10Y yields hit 2.39, the highest since October 6, as investors are once again betting on the reflation narrative:
Speaking of things that, like the GOP tax plan, will “never amount to nothin'”, try going long vol. via a piece of shit VIX ETP – that worked out for about an hour after the cash open on Thursday and now…
When it comes to short VIX ETPs however…
Your vol. selling neighbor: So you like XIV?
You: Oh, fuhgeddaboudit.
Neighbor: I got the SVXY.
You: Is that right? The one without the explicit termination clause?
Of course if we ever get a 5-vol spike in the VIX futures curve, guess what? Fuhgeddaboudit…
Dow outperformed on the week (“bigly” records! 23,000!):
Don’t look at it without glasses!
GE had a rollercoaster session after reporting laughably bad results only to get bailed out by some tough talk on the call:
Usual shenanigans for crude this week, as investors tried to piece together something that approximates a coherent narrative between headlines from Iraq, OPEC chatter, and U.S. inventory data. “The stock market is hitting new highs. The risk-on appetite is coming back,” Scotiabank’s Michael Loewen, told Bloomberg Friday, grasping at straws before adding that “the general rhetoric has been OPEC is going to be extending their cuts. We’ve been seeing good demand in the U.S. At the end of the day, the market is shaping up a lot more firmly than most were anticipating.”
The situation with Catalonia remains in flux. Here’s the only chart you need (one is the DAX and one is the IBEX and the chart is since the referendum – guess which is which):
Tough week for the kiwi, which fell below 0.70 as the market frets over the political transition. It’s now sitting at its lowest since May:
Mercifully, the Hang Seng bounced back from Thursday’s late session swoon that roiled global markets. The index finished the week little changed:
The Nikkei is probably never going to have a down day again. The index tied an all-time record posting its 14th consecutive day of gains on Friday, ahead of Sunday’s election:
Meanwhile, Bitcoin surged above $6,000 for the first time, just days after posting its worst loss in a month:
If you’re not in on that bubble yet, be careful because the crypto crowd are an insular bunch. You’ll need someone to introduce you. Buy your first Bitcoin and you’ll be a “friend of mine.” Stick around for a while and you might one day be “a friend of ours.” Keep your “mouth shut” about the guy bringing you in and because no one accepts Bitcoin, don’t be surprised if your connected friend asks you for “a couple a fazooles”…
Oh, and finally, a message from Kevin to send you off into the weekend …
Bears be like, god damn! Let me catch a break. Bulls, remember – eventually he gets one! pic.twitter.com/EPIataPh02
— Kevin Muir (@kevinmuir) October 20, 2017