False Start.

The question on everyone’s mind is whether Trump’s tax reform plan is for real or whether this is just another “false start“…

TaxesDB

And if it is another false start, well then…

Stocks did nothing because there wasn’t anything to trade on. No one knows what to do these days when there’s no nuclear war.

The final reading on Q2 GDP was revised up slightly to 3.1% in news that no one cared about because we’re getting ready to see some “big league” distortions in the Q3 data from hurricanes that Trump is exceedingly impressed with:

Treasurys pared losses after an overnight session that drove the 10Y yield above 2.35%. The curve steepened after the 7Y auction – some folks made some money.

From a big picture perspective, we’re in the midst of a DM bond rout on par with Sintra:

Yields2

And earlier today, 10Y yields moved through their 200-day MA:

Yields

The dollar fell for the first time this week and because we always need a reason, we’re going to call this “traders rebalancing positions ahead of the end of the month and quarter” (accurate, but had to make fun of the endless search for “because”):

Dollar

“The dollar was expected to see modest selling fueled by month-end portfolio rebalancing [and] some of that flow appeared to emerge overnight in both the Asian and European sessions,” Bloomberg notes, citing traders. “[I] expect mild USD selling for month-end, with a neutral signal vs EUR,” Credit Agricole analyst Jennifer Hau said, echoing the consensus.

USDJPY traded near session lows in the afternoon. Yonhap says North Korea is highly likely to launch more “provocations” imminently, which probably fueled some appetite for the “safe” currency printed by the country over which the North’s missiles have recently flown (because that makes sense):

USDJPY

People are super-excited about small-caps again now that the Trump trade is apparently back. As Bloomberg notes, the recent move higher (catalyzed, you’re reminded, by a short squeeze), has been a “stairway to heaven”):

Small

Basically, all anyone wants to talk about is whether the return of the reflation meme and thereby the action that followed the election is back for real or not:

DollarYields

Oil fell and it’s worth noting that a cursory look indicates it’s overbought:

Brent

Also worth noting, especially in light of this morning’s note from SocGen’s Kit Juckes, the offshore yuan fell for a fifth consecutive day.

USDCNH

And that’s that for Thursday. F*^ck it.

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