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“Loads Of Emotions And Lots To Ponder”
I'm inclined to believe that those of us who fancy ourselves black swan watchers are in a better position than usual heading into 2017.
We are a skeptical bunch by nature but our inclination to be cautious when others are calm stems not from some ingrained cynicism, but rather from our belief that the illusion of equilibrium (i.e. low vol.) is just that - an illusion. We contend that the distribution of market outcomes is not normal nor will it ever be.
Indeed, we're willing to take it one
I used to pride myself on being “alert to risks”, not being a lemming or part of the herd, and I felt brilliant after reading Black Swan. Then I learned that humans are naturally biased fearful, risk-averse, and suffer from confirmation bias. 2016 punished me for 10 months of thinking the crash will be “next month”, buying inverse funds, TVIX, and gold miners. I’m sitting on losing positions, hoping that like a broken clock, I should be right eventually.
You are just a little early but definitely on the right track. This central bank ponzi scheme is heading for a cliff and it’s going to be a epic. Hedge,Hedge, and Hedge some more. The black swans are coming ready or not.