Ok, who’s ready to take another look behind the “fourth wall?”
“Ultimately, investors can choose to second-guess fund flows, but once headline volatility reaches the lows, the proverbial short VIX “plane” will again be running on a single engine – carry – which itself is reflexively determined by fund flows.”
Make of it what you will.
“High October volatility is visible in each major index and sector over the past 30 years.”
“So hang in there, volatility longs. Only three more years ’til it all goes horribly right!”
“… the bears could catch up into year-end.”
“This vega-to-buy is at a record highs, almost doubling since mid-July on inflows to short VIX ETPs.”
Because then you’ll be actively contributing to the vol. spike (by selling assets or letting them roll off the balance sheet) and passively contributing to it as well by removing the “put” that incentivizes investors to buy dips and suppress volatility.
And so, having already grown faster in its initial stages than every other notable bubble on the list (and they probably should have included housing in Canada and Sweden), the only question now is whether it will continue to rise and ultimately surpass the 2+ year, exponential rally in BitCoin.
If it does, Seth Golden will be one of the richest people on the planet
“It is unlikely that even the last night comments would change that as they concern more of the tail risk, rather than general shift in uncertainty.”
“However, the market impact of a potential conflict on the Korean peninsula could be different.”
Dissensus is back.
“In the light of the recent geopolitical and domestic tensions, the market is taking a closer look at the Trump trade. This is reflected in pricing in a higher probability of a short-term risk off trade.”
“…people think that even Chuck Norris can’t make money buying vol.”
That is all kinds of precarious for all kinds of reasons that should be obvious to anyone with any sense.