Miki’s Revenge (Press Pause, Jay)
The Fed needs to seriously reconsider what’s still, but probably shouldn’t be, a guaranteed November
Down The Barrel
Ali Khamenei led the Friday prayer in Tehran. He spoke of the enemy and of
Hedge Funds Won’t Stick Around In China Unless Xi Delivers
On Thursday, a reader suggested, not implausibly, that a recent high-profile bull call on Chinese
My Only Friend, The End…
It’s probably time to start gaming out post-Khamenei scenarios for Iran. Joe Biden’s (possibly errant)
Fate Of China’s Mega-Rally Depends On Fiscal ‘Big Move’
Perhaps the Chinese government gets the message. At long last. On Wednesday, Zichen Wang published
Hot Toddy!
The US services sector performed — and I’ll opt for an understated adjective in the
US Labor Market At ‘Inflection Point’
Guess what? US jobless claims are still low. Thursday’s initial claims headline printed 225,000, above
The Yen Rollercoaster Continues
Remember the Shigeru Ishiba yen rally? If so, you should know that it’s over now.
Bear Case, Bull Case, End Times
When it comes to the species, I’m a committed bear. The short case for humanity’s
For US Stocks, A ‘Spooky’ October. Sky’s The Limit After That
Goldman’s Scott Rubner is worried. About two things. First, he’s worried he might not be
Open House
“Would you ever consider a mortgage?” That was the question posed to me earlier this
US Private Hiring Solid, Pay Growth Tame In Sunny ADP Release
The US labor market’s resilient. Just like US consumers. Those two things — jobs and
Meanwhile, In The Equity Vol Space
US markets traded with a risk-off vibe to kick off Q4 in the presence of
Fed’s Labor Market Narrative Intact After Mixed JOLTS Release
Job openings across the world’s largest economy rose above eight million for the first time
US Factory Recession Rolls Into Second Year With Election Looming
The US manufacturing sector just spent another month in contraction. “Breaking news,” I know. No
He Hates These Dots
Jerome Powell spoke Monday at a NABE conference in Nashville, where he said a whole
Asia’s Favorite Trade Goes Wrong-Way
Where’d the money come from? What was the source of funds for Monday’s pre-holiday buying
FOMO Charts From China’s Black Swan Rally
The sense of “FOMO” in China is “increasing.” So said Goldman’s Scott Rubner on Monday,
In China, ‘It’s Absolutely Insane’
Chinese equity investors are an excitable lot, God bless ’em. And international investors were woefully
Jobs And Jay
It’s the first week of a new month and you know what that means: Top-tier
Peace To War, Bonds To Commodities
Bonds. Where to from here? US Treasurys are on track for a second straight annual
Turning Point
[Editor’s note: In light of the historic significance of the events which unfolded in Beirut
‘Judgment Day’
“Here’s the truth,” Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday, addressing the UN General Assembly. “Israel yearns for
Money Funds, Stock ETFs Inundated In 2024 Flow Bonanza
Meanwhile, on the flows front. US money market funds just saw one of their largest
The ‘Bubble Dream’
What’s not to like? If you’re well-off, reside in an advanced economy and aren’t bothered
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