Things took a decisive turn for the “Goddammit, really?!” in South Korea on Tuesday evening, when president Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, banning political activities and seizing control of the media in what appeared to be the country’s first such emergency decree in more than three and a half decades of civilian government.
Yoon, a conservative former prosecutor accused by critics of undermining South Korea’s democracy through, among other things, a sweeping “fake news” crackdown on the free press, claimed the opposition was engaged in a conspiracy to “overthrow” the government.
During what I can only call an absurdist address to the nation, Yoon blamed, in part, Pyongyang. “North Korean communist forces [and] pro-North Korean anti-state forces are plundering the freedom and happiness of our people,” he declared, unironically describing Tuesday’s overtly anti-democratic motion as necessary “to protect the free constitutional order.”
The currency was unamused, to put it mildly. The won briefly dipped below its September 2022 “dollar wrecking ball” levels to the weakest since 2009. The central bank promised to provide “unlimited liquidity” to markets.
Yoon, who’s pretty clearly lost his mind, went on to assert for himself authority to “rebuild and defend” his country, which he said was “falling into ruin.”
For those unfamiliar, Yoon’s an exceedingly divisive figure in South Korea, where he’s perpetually at odds with an aggressively adversarial legislature. Parliamentary elections held in April were catastrophic for Yoon, whose foreign policy bona fides are overshadowed by a poisonously fractious domestic politics he goes out of his way to stoke.
It wouldn’t be too much of an exaggeration to call Tuesday’s declaration an attempt on Yoon’s part to seize power through the military. It’s hard to know how far along Yoon was in the planning process, but… well, suffice to say it takes a certain kind of individual to preside for any length of time over a military junta. Whether Yoon’s that sort of person I don’t know.
To call Yoon unpopular would be an understatement of pretty epic proportions. Early last month, a Gallup Korea poll saw his approval rating slip to just 19%. He’ll be even more unpopular now, I can assure you of that.
The April ballot was a landslide for the liberal opposition, which already held a majority in South Korea’s one-chamber legislature. In short: Yoon’s the lamest of lame ducks and he still has two and a half years left on his term. (Probably less now, though.)
Early on in his tenure, Yoon drew scattered comparisons to Donald Trump. He’s pro-business, for example, and he’s a proud “anti-feminist.” Following Trump’s victory this month, Yoon reportedly began practicing golf in a bid to replicate the late Shinzo Abe’s wildly successful efforts to facilitate the US-Japanese bilateral by endearing himself to a US president with a famously short attention span.
The US-traded South Korea ETF suffered a rather dramatic intraday drop. Volume in the product was quite literally off the charts, eclipsing any previous session just a few hours into the trading day.
Yoon tasked a South Korean general with overseeing the particulars of what ended up being a short-lived martial law order and enforcing its dictates which included a ban on “all political activities” and also on organized labor action (South Korea’s currently grappling with a strike among medical personnel). The good general would’ve been free to arrest citizens with no warrant, and was authorized to commandeer all media outlets and publishers.
To state the obvious: Yoon’s decision set a very bad precedent at a time when Western electorates are inclined towards experimenting with different flavors of authoritarianism. Do note: Some of Trump’s allies have, at various intervals (and in some cases with more than a little spelling trouble) suggested Trump could, and should, institute martial law in the US.
The South Korean opposition called Yoon’s decree “null and void” and correctly assessed that he betrayed the public trust. Indeed, the leader of Yoon’s own conservative party echoed those sentiments, calling Yoon “wrong” and vowing to “stop” him with the help of “the people.”
Under the country’s constitution, the legislature can vote to compel a president to lift martial law. The National Assembly did just that despite the presence of troops (!) in the legislature. The soldiers — who were heavily armed — apparently left without incident, but as you can see from the visuals above, the optics were very, very bad.
After a three-hour delay, Yoon backed down. “A short time ago, the National Assembly demanded that martial law be lifted, so I withdrew the military forces that had been deployed to carry out martial law,” he said. “I will lift martial law as soon as we have a quorum in the cabinet.”
Ultimately, Yoon didn’t have it in him, but if this isn’t a clarion call, I don’t know what is. Put differently: “Coming soon to a democracy near you…”
This is the sort of information that makes my subscription well worth the money.
Also, and not for nothin’, I actually pay to license the pictures I use for my geopolitical articles, which is to say I do things the right way, like a news outlet. That, as opposed to sundry Substacks and blogs, which in many cases can’t be bothered with paying the licensing fees for the photos they rip off, thereby depriving photographers who put their lives at risk to capture the moment, and who depend on those fees to make a living and feed their families. I mention that because it underscores the lengths I go to to provide my readers with a quality experience. The pictures for this article, for example, were $35 each. Now think back to how many pictures you’ve seen in my geopolitical coverage over the past, say one year, and do the math. It costs money to do things right, but it’s worth it. Or at least it is to me.
I appreciate your honest work and diligence. I know if I read it here, the info has been vetted, and the message has been well thought out.
Thanks
The quality of your work is much appreciated.
I had already “googled” Rami Alsayed- the photographer of your photo for your December 1 article, “Going Back to Aleppo” which led me to a heartbreaking list of reporters who have died in pursuit of their personal calling to report and photograph the truth and horror of what is actually happening in the world. The list is very long.
This weekend, I went to visit friends who had moved into a new house earlier this year. On one side, a house had Christmas lights that spelled out “TRUMP” and the other side was a house with a second amendment flag. Turns out both neighbors are in law enforcement.
Might be a good time to brush up on martial law in the US…
I know very little about South Korea culture and politics. I did however enjoy Parasite and Squid Games and the messages that each conveyed. Both are worth a watch.
Well, the candy-ass wimp obeyed the constitution and rescinded it. That was quick.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/South-Korea-s-Yoon-backs-down-on-martial-law-declaration?utm_campaign=GL_one_time&utm_medium=email&utm_source=NA_newsletter&utm_content=article_link
There’s a lot going on here in terms of a “societal breakdown” in South Korea.
Across Korea, young women are swearing off men, influenced by the 4B movement, a radical feminist campaign that originated in Korea in the late 2010s. The four Bs stand for bi-hon (no marriage), bi-yeonae (no dating), bi-chulsan (no birthing) and bi-sex (no sex).
The movement formed in response to growing gender inequality and violence against women: Korea has one of the largest gender pay gaps in the world, and brutal murders of women — in subway stations, on rooftops and in their own homes, often at the hands of men they were dating — headline news shows daily. Amid so much political turmoil and bloodshed, 4B activists say the only way to make women safe — and convince society to take their safety seriously — is to swear off men altogether until something changes.
And now, in the wake of Donald Trump’s reelection, 4B is going viral in the U.S.
No Sex, No Dating, No Babies, No Marriage: How the 4B Movement Could Change America
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/11/16/4b-movement-america-political-protest-00189314
Why Misogyny Is at the Heart of South Korea’s presidential elections
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60643446
Yes, I’m aware. And I don’t blame women for swearing off men. There, here or anywhere else. We’re pretty awful, as it turns out.
Thanks for those links Dana. One thing in the BBC story really stuck out: “A survey last year by a local newspaper found that 79% of young men in South Korea feel “seriously discriminated against” because of their gender.”
Of course there is no lesson from this for us in the USA!
We live in the damn Twilight Zone. I had to ban a guy just two days ago because he wouldn’t stop posting lengthy, quasi-racist rants about how hard he has it as — wait for it — a middle-aged white man working for one of the world’s larger investment banks. I mean my God: I’ve never heard so much whining from so many people at the top of the socioeconomic pyramid in my life.
A middle-aged white man working one of world’s larger investment banks in this life should get a sharp stick poked through the eyepiece of his gas mask in the next life.
Think how good it must be if you’re an ally guy with a smooth Alan Alda act, though.
Those supportive of 4B might enjoy reading “Lysistrata” by Aristophanes. Classified as a comedy, he presents what might happen if women, sick of men, took over the government and the treasury and threw all men out of their lives. Note, they grabbed the money first.
I was just reading up on Korean history a couple weeks ago and I noticed that they had a big problem with coups and political stability in the modern era. First seeing the headlines I was worried, but thankfully the guy trying to pull this off seems to have been too unpopular to make it work.
Hopefully this is an inverse good-cases-make-bad law situation and this sets a precedent that dissuades the next person who wants to try it.
For those interested in what happened the last time South Korea declared martial law, I suggest reading Human Acts, by Han Kang, who was awarded the Noble Prize in 2024. Human Acts is about the “Gwangju Massacre” in 1980.
The US strongly supported Park in South Korea and the dictators in Taiwan starting with Chiang Kai Shek followed by Chiang Ching-kuo. Also the Greek Colonels and Pinochet in Chile. Afterall, they weren’t communists so that was all that mattered.
I am fortunate to be friends w/ Koreans in SKorea and the US, and an uncle/father-figure to Korean-American woman who came here when she was 2yo. My first night in Seoul this past summer, I stayed near the Han River b/c I knew I’d want to walk a lot while recovering from jet lag. The first night I walked back and forth along the Han b/n 11pm and 3am. It was a Saturday night so there were people out walking, some drinking, and later groups of 2 or 3 young people hanging out or walking around. I never felt unsafe. In fact, it was an exceptional experience and a great way to start my trip. The next day, when I told my friends, Yegu and Yeonju, how safe I felt, never sensing I was being sized up as a target, etc. Yegu’s response was, “Yes, it’s great. You could leave your cell phone on a bench and it would probably be there for a couple days unless someone tried to return it. Also, not everyone here has a gun.”
I will be back again this summer, this time w/ a good friend to visit her family near Mokpo, hiking, etc., before heading to Seoul for a few days. Great place to visit. Or live depending on what happens w/ trump.
There’s something to that. I still recall walking at night with my wife in a deserted underpass at night in the Tokyo business district on my first visit in 1984. I heard footsteps approaching from behind us…. my NYC instincts kicked into gear until I turned and discovered that the potential assailant was a well-dressed office lady walking with no fear. The same when I lived there a few years later. The same held in HK when I lived there, as long as you avoided clubs run by triads.
Imagine how some people near you are going to feel when they realized they have been duped by the most massive con game the world has ever known. If not are some going through that now?
If you think those that hoped for a different election outcome have it bad. Think how those that have to confront reality as it is will feel when eventually they come down off their dopamine high.
Some will remain true to their hearts and remain misogynistic. Those will be the sorest of losers one day. 4G had not heard of this, but I can understand why women would feel that way.
Great post, sir.
“Coming soon to a democracy near you…” Indeed! It was quite a sight to see TV footage on NHK of South Korean military personnel in full tactical gear, climbing through broken windows at the National Assembly building trying to gain access in order to shut down the democratic process taking place within the assembly. It seems like we’ve seen something similar somewhere before… Just sayin’.
Would you recommend buying south korean equities at these levels, whether the entire market ETF or any specific names e.g. Samsung? I am well aware of your general philosophy of very rarely giving such investment advice, so worry not – I will apply the customary disclaimers to whatever you say.
One day, or day one?