Jerome Powell sat down Wednesday for a mostly pointless conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin for The New York Times DealBook summit.
It pains me to cover these fireside chats. Really it does. No one learns anything. It’s a waste of time. Full stop. Alas.
“Do you think the Fed could come under some kind of DOGE-like program?” Sorkin wondered, effectively asking if Elon Musk might attempt to somehow cull the Fed’s army of economists and staffers. Powell reminded Sorkin that the Fed’s self-funded and has “strong legal independence.”
“We have a large balance sheet, and our assets earn more than our liabilities,” he mused. “And we remit those proceeds to the Treasury.” I umm… well, here:
I hesitate even to broach this subject because the term “loss” has no meaning in the context of the Fed. But a Fed that “loses” money is a Fed that’s vulnerable to political opportunists. Whatever the case, Powell said he’s “not concerned” that the Fed will lose its independence under Donald Trump, nor under any other president.
When asked about his approach to communicating — i.e., “plain English” — Powell said that as a public entity, the Fed “shouldn’t be mysterious.” “I think it’s important that the interested public should be able to understand what we’re doing,” he went on. “When you talk to the public and you use jargon it makes people angry.”
Sorkin asked him why it makes sense to cut rates given the strength of the economy and still-sticky inflation. Powell fed (no pun intended) him the same boilerplate line(s): “The US economy is doing very well. Inflation has come down. We’re not quite there on inflation but we’re making progress.”
Pressed about September’s 50bps cut which looked to some like overkill following a robust jobs report covering that month and subsequent revisions to the BEA’s income series, Powell reminded Sorkin that the Fed “held on longer after other central banks had cut,” and said September’s big move was designed “to send a strong signal that we were going to support the labor market if it weakens.”
Asked by Sorkin if the BEA and the BLS “have a counting problem” (a reference to what, at times, look like vexingly large revisions), Powell said, “They’re surveys. You’re not counting people nationwide.” And when survey response rates are low, as they were post-pandemic, you should expect volatility in the revisions.
Powell rattled off a long list of tariffs unknowns. The Fed doesn’t know how big they’ll be, when they’ll be instituted, how long they’ll be in place, which countries will be affected, what the read-through will ultimately be for prices nor how the market will react to their announcement and implementation. In short, the Fed doesn’t know anything more about “Tariff Man”‘s plans than anyone else, and as such, they “can’t really start making policy on that at this time.”
As for immigration, Powell said it’s not up to him to say what the “right” level is, but he reminded an increasingly xenophobic nation that the pandemic-era “wave of immigration” was part of why GDP growth was so high in 2023. The US economy’s strong performance was attributable in no small part to “a wave of people coming in and doing more work and spending money.”
Sorkin wondered if Trump’s threat to put tariffs on the BRICS countries if they endeavor to conduct trade in their own currency might backfire and accelerate de-dollarization. Powell dodged. It’s Treasury’s responsibility to manage the exchange rate, he said.
Asked if there’s a “tipping point” for the debt and deficit (and Sorkin grossly mischaracterized MMT while posing the question), Powell said no, with the caveat that the fiscal concerns voiced by deficit hawks should be addressed eventually and that robust growth can help mitigate an otherwise untenable situation.
When Sorkin asked whether there might come a point when the Fed would hesitate to raise rates or actively lower them in order to help manage the country’s interest burden, Powell said “Never, never.” That’s something you see in emerging markets, Powell remarked. “If the central bank can’t raise rates to deal with inflation because the fiscal situation is so bad — if we ever get to that point –” he trailed off. “We’re far from that point.”
When Sorkin asked who’s to blame for the “vibecession” in the US, Powell effectively said COVID: “Look, we shut down the world economy. There was a global outburst of inflation. It was everywhere, ok?” he said. “I could show you a chart of 10 countries and you wouldn’t be able to — you’d have a one in 10 shot” at identifying the US.
As ever, he was earnest. “People are unhappy because the price level is higher,” Powell said. “You can tell people inflation’s gone down, but it doesn’t matter for those people who’re paying 10% or 20% more for the things they need in their everyday lives.”
Oh, and as for Scott Bessent and the whole “shadow” Fed Chair idea, Powell said, “I don’t think that’s on the table at all.”



He was just calm and reassuring. As you said, how much more can you expect from something like that forum?
But I was delighted and heartened to see this headline scroll past while the broadcast was running:
“Trump picks Peter Navarro to serve as a top trade adviser” Step aside Scott “DEI” Bessent! Your opinions are unneeded and will be unheeded.
All this before the inauguration is interesting. Trump’s honeymoon looks like it’s going to be very short. He has 15 months to get something done, after that it’s lame duck time.
Trump Chooses Crypto Advocate Paul Atkins to Lead SEC
Plain English. Along the lines of being “data dependent”? Joe Public also appreciates consistency. The Fed has been inconsistent in their interpretation and application of “data dependent.” Perhaps even more egregious is their butchering of “restrictive” relative to an unknown “neutral,” as H as described very well several (many?) times.
They’re making it up as they go…again.