There are a lot of different ways to go about usurping democratic governance.
One blueprint popular on the American right is the Viktor Orban plan, which entails the stealthy, furtive arrogation of a nation’s institutions, a slow asphyxiation of the free press and the quashing of dissent through subtle means which make protest more trouble than it’s worth. That’s “illiberal democracy,” and it requires patience on the part of the usurper.
If you’re impatient — or if you’ve run out of patience after two years trying to bring opposition elements to heel — you can take a more brazen approach. You might, for example, declare martial law and send the military to the legislature to arrest lawmakers convened to nullify your declaration. That’s what South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol did on Tuesday.
Here’s the thing, though: If you’re gonna go that route — or any other route that entails physical coercion — you gotta follow through. You gotta convince people you mean business, otherwise they’ll call your bluff, throw you out of office and, quite possibly, throw you into jail.
Yoon didn’t follow through. The 300 (give or take) martial law soldiers who showed up at the National Assembly (some of whom ferried there by police helicopters) were deterred by staffers “armed” only with fire extinguishers and miscellaneous office equipment. (“Back up! Back up! I’ll staple you!”) For his part, Yoon folded up like wet cardboard when all 190 parliamentarians who managed to enter the building voted to end his two-hour-old martial law.
Suffice to say Yoon ain’t cut out for the dictator game. If he was serious, at least a few people would be dead today, and parliament would likewise be on permanent vacation. Instead, people are poking fun at him. As one local put it, in remarks to the Western media, “Yoon doesn’t know what he’s doing. He looks like a five-year-old boy.” No one ever said that publicly about Saddam Hussein, or if they did, they didn’t live to say it again. The AP called Yoon’s martial law decree “a poorly-thought-out stunt.” And on and on. The ridicule on Wednesday was merciless, as it should be.
The won recovered and equities — which, incidentally, probably wouldn’t have traded Wednesday if Yoon succeeded — escaped with only minor losses.
Equity implied vol did pick up, but all things considered, it wasn’t bad. The central bank made it clear they’d step in to arrest (no pun intended) any undue turbulence.
But make no mistake: The reputational damage is done. Yoon has forever marred South Korea’s democracy. The mark from Tuesday’s bungled power grab will likely prove indelible. Investor confidence is shaken and will remain so. Local equities will probably trade at a deeper discount to regional peers for the foreseeable future. Etc. Etc.
Plainly, Yoon has to go now. It’s very difficult to imagine how he can preside over a democratic system he just tried to usurp. An impeachment motion was pending, and some critics want him tried for treason, among other things. (He should probably be charged with dictatorial incompetence too.)
It wasn’t clear where Yoon was on Wednesday night, which is to say he was hiding. His inner circle resigned, or at least offered to, including Kim Yong Hyun, the defense minster who, according to reports, was the mastermind behind what’ll go down as a very stupid, pitiably weak-willed attempt to institute military rule.
It’ll take a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly to impeach Yoon, who’d lose his powers under the constitution if the motion were to succeed. The country’s Constitutional Court would have to rule on the matter with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo acting as president in the meantime. The court ruling could be complicated by a trio of retirements. Those vacant seats mean all six sitting justices would have to agree to impeach Yoon.
Anyway, this was a debacle for the ages, and as noted here Tuesday, it should serve as a warning to the rest of the democratic world. If Yoon had “the courage to do what should have been done,” to quote America’s last and next president, the geopolitical landscape would look very different all of a sudden.
“In our judgment, any political disagreements need to be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law,” Antony Blinken said, in remarks delivered from the NATO headquarters in Brussels. Korea’s institutions, he went on, referring to the legislature’s rejection of Yoon’s order, are “functioning as they should.”
Trump may have learned this lesson: Send the military to close down the legislature before making the martial law order public. Maybe Yoon tried and the Korean military refused to follow the order until Yoon went public.
If Trump does not declare a “national emergency” on Day 1 and issue an order that describes new powers for various federal agencies (and perhaps those assisting such agencies), I’ll be surprised. He may even try to criminalize various legal behaviors, even though he lacks the power to do so. Yoon’s mistakes will encourage trump to keep his most coercive plans secret until the last moment.
You are describing an overview of Project 2025. Shock is part of the plan. I read somewhere I believe that 3,000 executive order are ready on day one. The courts will never get to the bottom of that pile. I agree with you about decisiveness. I pity those in power in Washington these days. They are faced with a bully that will bully them for the next 4 years.
I agree with these pages, Trump is an imbecile. However an imbecile who has surrounded himself with intelligent capable evil people. Bannon, Miller and Flynn are at least three that will likely win more voice to influence the thoughts in Trump’s head. This rather than as you have suggested, listen to thoughts that are resident in Trump’s head.
The thought I read today from a commentator that Carlson is calling the nomination shots indicates the cabinet nominations are being called from Putin’s villa. Carlson is going back to Moscow, possibly to get another load of instructions soon to deliver to Donnie.
Yeah, but ultimately, you have to be a Saddam to be a Saddam. I don’t think those people have it in them. The Orban plan can work, but it’s going to be a lot harder in America than it was in Hungary.
I’d do a study on the secretive Council for National Policy, a coalition of Christian nationalists and right-wing activists. They’re going to do a lot of damage.
Again: It depends on your definition of “a lot of damage.” Do you mean the institution of an Orban/Erdogan-style system or do you mean the “dictatorship” that some people claim’s imminent. Obviously, I abhor Trump as a choice for president, and I dislike his sycophants even more than I do him, but I haven’t come across anyone yet willing to suggest that any of those people are prepared to do any of the things you have to do to institute an actual, overnight dictatorship. If you want to do that, people have to be scared of you personally, and not just a little bit, but a lot, and in a very direct way. If you look at the body language of Putin’s subordinates when they’re seated at those long tables with him, it’s a different sort of thing than what you observe among Turkish lawmakers when Erdogan’s carrying on about one of his conspiracy theories. Nobody’s scared that Trump might pull out a pistol at a cabinet meeting and shoot the guy sitting across the table from him on national television. Nobody worries that Vivek Ramaswamy might walk into his first DOGE meeting, slip on a pair of OJ gloves and strangle someone to death right in front of everyone just to prove a point. That’s the kind of fear you need if you’re going be the kind of leader Trump is in his own childlike imagination and in the worst nightmares of his critics. He can — and probably will — do a lot of very scary stuff, but there will never (ever) be a time when people are scared of Trump the man, nor any of the people around him, the same way North Koreans are scared of Kim, Russians of Putin, Saudis of MBS and so on. Trump and his folks just aren’t those kinds of people. (Ironically in this context, Dick Cheney is.)
Is it possible that Yoon was drunk when he issued the order?