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Just Two More Months
"Don't worry about it. You get paid in rubles, not dollars."
That was Dmitry Peskov's answer to an inquisitive journalist who wondered whether Russians should be worried about their currency, which depreciated sharply mid-week and is on track for a fourth consecutive month of losses against... well, against real money.
Although the currency managed to find its footing on Thursday, it's the weakest since Vladimir Putin's fateful decision to invade his neighbor three years ago this coming Februa
I guess we will find out whether Ukraine is willing to agree to Putin’s terms: never join NATO and the EU, never rearm, and agree to deed its eastern cities and provinces to Russia. There’s a chance they won’t, realizing those are just openers from Putin. That domination of its media, military, trade will follow. That enough of Europe—Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Poland, Britain etc will increase support enough to delay Russia long enough for Russia and its economy to wear down to a much lower pace of attack. If that were to happen— no deal—would the US end arms support, relieve sanctions on Russia anyway? Won’t be a deal if Ukraine, its military and people are willing to fight on without US arms support, especially given Russia’s condition as you have set out, if the US and Europe continue sanctions.
Recent opinion polls in Ukaine suggest that just over 50% of the populace is now willing to ceed territory in exchange for peace. Just a poll subject to all sorts of questioning, but the war ans losses of Ukranian men is not a recipee for a willingness to continue the fight without US and other western aid.
All those lives on both sides lost for nothing.
Your presumption they will lose ‘other western’ aid is not accepted by some who have given lots.
Sad part is they know they will not enjoy peace for long. Vladimir has a strong track record of performing the double cross.
So maybe if they thought they could have peace they would give up territory?
Dead on.
That ruble chart looks like it’s a couple limit downs away from pitchforks…my question is when is zelensky going to try to hit oil infrastructure.
Ukraine’s drone hit so much energy infrastucture it is almost not news anymore. Many refineries have been hit, so much that markets have been affected. The refineries in the east however have not been affected. Ukraine’s drones cannot fly that far.
The ruble chart may force Kremlin’s hand to either turn on Vladimir or lose it with the Russian people. The falling ruble is impossible to propagandize away. Dictators have mostly been deposed over foreign wars that go bad. Ukraine is touted by Vladimir as a domestic war, but the population knows better. Vladimir is aware of the history of dictators deposed by their population because of failed foreign wars.
It seems from my chair that Vladimir’s best hope is Donnie and his select team of misfits. Remains to be seen if Thune can muster one for the country and tune Donnie out.
I wonder how much a weaker ruble raises consumer prices for everyday goods? Not for energy where prices can be set by fiat. I have no idea how much food Russia needs to import. Is it driving up the price of staples?
But certainly the weaker ruble for imported luxury goods, which might aggravate the wealthy who actually matter if Putin is to be toppled. \
Sadly, the impact of the falling Iranian Rial suggests that a collapsing currency may take a lot longer than many of us hope to trigger a regime change. In either country.
I believe currency disruptions have resulted in regime change. The inflation caused by the collapsing ruble will impact every day prices. It also impacts availability. The situation is not looking good for anyone in Russia. The problem is that Putin is now cornered, a cornered animal can be dangerous indeed, Putin is that animal.
All that said Russia has tools available most countries do not. So it is not the same sort of pain others might feel. Russia is culturally a stoic, to grin and bear it is a normal response in Russia.
Quibbling out of curiosity. What percentage of consumer goods in Russia are imported? i.e. what is the transmission mechanism from a weaker ruble to the cost of living in that country? Are they somewhat self-sufficient or will prices for everyday goods soar as the currency weakens?
Perhaps the yuan/ruble and ruble/rupee rates are more important when it comes to consumer goods? In any case, it sure looks like we will find out soon enough.
Late last week the South China Morning Post in HK ran a story suggesting that goods exporters in the PRC were reducing shipments to Russian buyers who paid in rubles. Private companies, so far.
But didn’t Tuckems go to a Russian grocery store filled with the finest produce known to man a few months ago. Who are you going to believe a man’s man, who is possibly possessed by a demon, like Carlson or your squiggly lines?
I wonder if you are right? About Trump that is, not Putin. I have followed currencies and global capital flows since the start of the multi-year Bretton Woods collapse in 1970 to 1981. Russia is collapsing because Trump has won AND because he plans to totally dominate the global natural gas market. Norway is number one in selling to the EU at 31% and the US (19%) is number two. Russia is at 14% and the EU is moving to force Russia lower. The EU and a warm winter would justify a collapsing ruble and Putin settling for a lousy deal.