One Bank Talks Impeachment, Downside For Stocks, As Democrats Beg DoJ To “Fend Off” Trump
“They view the evolution of this probability as the major determinant of near-term equity performance. Our equity strategists think a 10% change in the assessed probability for a corporate tax plan is worth about 55 points for the S&P 500.”
“The Shadowiest Corner Of Shadow Banking” – A Sunday Trip To Chinatown
China’s labyrinthine shadow banking complex has been a source of concern for years. It’s always
In Islam Speech, Trump Fights ‘Barbaric Criminals’ In Epic ‘Battle Of Good Vs. Evil’
TRUMP TO SAY WAR ON TERROR IS `BATTLE BETWEEN GOOD AND EVIL’
TRUMP: WAR ON TERROR NOT BATTLE BETWEEN DIFFERENT FAITHS
TRUMP: WAR ON TERROR IS FIGHT AGAINST `BARBARIC CRIMINALS’
North Korea Decides Now’s As Good A Time As Any To Launch Another Missile
No one should be surprised by this. Pyongyang is hell-bent on staying in the spotlight and Trump’s jaunt across the Mideast threatens to shift the focus away from the North/South tensions. So you know, some sabers needed to be rattled. They’re probably also intent on testing the mettle of new South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
“We’re Approaching A Margin Call” – The “Trump Put,” Volatility, & One Analyst’s Masterpiece
“When expressed in options language, the Trump put has the same decomposition as the Bernanke put during the QE period. Effectively, this is a supply of equity vol to the market financed by “selling puts†on President’s credibility. However, in contrast with the Fed whose communications with the markets reduced volatility, the new political transparency, as communicated through presidential tweets and political discourse, has been generally volatility increasing.”
“The Outlook Is Quite Dim” – Goldman Reiterates “Fuck It” Call On Dollar As Russians Take Over White House
“We recently revised down our forecasts for the trade-weighted US dollar, but the latest developments in Washington have introduced additional downside risks.”
Video: Trump, Wilbur Ross, Rex Tillerson Do The Saudi Sword Dance
Hey, not everyone can be George Bush, right?
Reuters: Trump To Sabotage Special Counsel Probe With “Obscure” Rule, Smear Campaign
Surprise!… Donald Trump is already trying to impede former FBI Director Robert Mueller’s efforts to investigate
Wednesday’s Equity Bloodbath Produced A 94th Percentile Moment
“The outperformance has only been greater in 6% of the sessions in two years.”
I Tweet, Therefore I Am (A Hypocrite): Headscarf Edition
The thing about Donald Trump’s Twitter feed is that if you really want to look
Chart Of The Day: “Premature Abdication”
Leading indicator?
Iran’s Rouhani Wins In Landslide As Trump Meets Unelected Royals In Saudi Arabia
Hassan Rouhani has won Iran’s presidential election. Rouhani won 57% of the vote to Ebrahim Raisi’s
Hedge Funds Are Still Trailing The S&P And Cocaine Ain’t Gettin’ Any Cheaper
Regular readers know we think it’s a cryin’ fuckin’ shame that low-cost, passive investment vehicles that track
“Real Nut Job” Comey To Give “Real” Testimony In “Real” Open Session
Well, it looks like the “real nut job” that Donald Trump was forced, gun to
Who’s The “Nut Job” Now? Russia Probe Targets White House Official “Close To Trump”
“The law enforcement investigation into possible coordination between Russia and the Trump campaign has identified a current White House official as a significant person of interest, showing that the probe is reaching into the highest levels of government.”
Synchronized Swimming (We’ve Only Seen This Once Since 2004)
“2017 is on track to be the first year of synchronized equity inflows to all major region funds since 2004.”
Guest Post: The OTC Derivative “Nightmare” Fizzles
“I don’t know much, but I do know the next crisis will look nothing like the last. We just hit new ten year lows. Strange how all of those shrill predictions about the coming OTC derivative crisis have gone silent.”
Thanks Trump: Goldman Is Losing Faith In Goldman’s Ability To Get Anything Done
“The probability that tax legislation will be enacted by 2018 has fallen further, in our view, as a result of recent events. The last few weeks have taken a toll on President Trump’s approval rating as well as support for Republicans in Congress.”
Why You Shouldn’t “Invest” In 3X ETFs: Exhibit “B”
On Friday, people are buying the “Brazil just proved their political crisis is intractable” dip.
Nassim Taleb Took Time Away From Deadlifting Stones To Tell Us This: “Trump Is Not An Idiot”
Just when you thought this might be a boring ass Friday, guess who agreed (probably begrudgingly) to sit down for an interview with Bloomberg’s starstruck Erik Schatzker?
Trader: This Is A “Thankless Task,” Headlines “Don’t Wait For Normal Business Hours”
“It’s a thankless task to try trading when it seems that all of the relevant inputs are unscheduled exogenous shocks.”
“President’s Day”: Iran Is Voting, Brazil Is Panicking, Trump Is Traveling
It feels quiet in America on Friday morning. Maybe that’s because Donald Trump is leaving
Key Calls (Friday): Upgrades, Downgrades & Initiations
Are your stocks on the list?
One Bank Says Trump Won’t Be Impeached … Yet
“To date no US President has been impeached by his own party, and given the highly charged partisan environment, we think that evidence of a breach deemed sufficient to trigger impeachment proceedings would have to be very robust. However, if there is a change in the composition of control in Congress post-Midterms and Democrats pick up significant seats, the political calculus could change.”
Goldman: Buy Puts On These Shitty Stocks For A Pullback (Spoiler: Tesla’s One Of Them)
“For investors looking to protect their portfolio, we identify those stocks which have attractive puts and limited fundamental downside support based on cash-flow analysis and our analysts’ views.”
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