Join institutional investors, analysts and strategists from the world's largest banks: Subscribe today
Already have an account? log in
Rekindled Inflation And Fear Of The Great Unknown
At the risk of stating the obvious (and for the umpteenth time), one of the main macro-policy risks for the US economy in 2025 is the prospect of a persistent inflation impulse kept smoldering by Donald Trump's "2.0" agenda, most of which is inflationary at least in theory.
Of course, theory and reality are two different things, and to the extent theory's shorthand for orthodoxy and the establishment, it's discredited on many vectors, although I'm not sure this is one of them.
Tariffs will rai
H-Man, respectively disagree the US economy is going to dodge the bullet on this one. Europe is a mess, ditto for China, ditto for the Middle East. I don’t see Trump policies (which is probably an oxymoron) providing any help to the economy while leaving Canada and Mexico on bended knees. And we have the issue of how many bonds can dance on a pin head. Yeah, there could be a ninth inning rally but it doesn’t look that way.
I can’t believe that even we battle tested cynical bastards write that “if inflation proves stubborn” – how panty-waste a statement is that? Inflation is going to bite us in the ass. Tariffs, deporting labor that produces critical components of ‘everyman’s’ daily budget. Cutting taxes on billionaires who consume about 5% of their revenue – AND only invest when it works into a strong market (like we had in 2024). If equities do as well as minus 20% how many index funds are going to raise our animal spirits. Come on let’s get real! Trump will wake up – he is not dumb, he will turn into a true Mussolini or Peron populist before it is too late. He has about 2 to 3 months to wake up before he is toast. We readers MUST anticipate that now.
Well put, sir.
As you know from your long experience, there is huge inertia in our business. Preemptive portfolio adjustments, especially if they mean taking taxable gains, can often he foolhardy if a massive sell-off does not follow. If one just sits and watches a significant drawdown, it’s “safer” if everyone else is suffering as well. At least on a relative performance basis.
But I have one serious quibble – shouldn’t it be spelled “pantywaist”? It’s a term I’ve long used along with candyass.
Remembering your results that you shared a while back, you must feel aggravated when you see most of us be content to match the indexes and accept downturns as long as they don’t exceed how our competitors performed.