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Featured

Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

November 1, 2026
  • Let’s Talk Blue Waves

    November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026October 31, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026

Markets

What’s What And WTF?

October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

    October 28, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Trump, Bill Barr Make Most Brazen Move Yet With Late-Night Sacking Of Geoffrey Berman

June 20, 2020June 21, 2020

“Why does a president get rid of his own hand-picked US Attorney less than five months before the election?”

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13 Comments on Trump, Bill Barr Make Most Brazen Move Yet With Late-Night Sacking Of Geoffrey Berman

The Market Got It Wrong In 2008. Are We Making The Opposite Mistake In 2020?

June 19, 2020June 19, 2020

“One needs to be careful not to simply be contrarian for contrarian’s sake, but…”

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Apple Of My Eye (See You In Tulsa)

June 19, 2020June 20, 2020

“Everyone’s really, really excited”.

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oil10 Comments on Apple Of My Eye (See You In Tulsa)

‘You Can’t Get Fooled Again’: Is America Ready For Real Economic Solutions Or Not?

June 19, 2020June 19, 2020

“…fool me once, shame on — shame on you”.

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16 Comments on ‘You Can’t Get Fooled Again’: Is America Ready For Real Economic Solutions Or Not?

The US Corporate Bond Market Just Keeps Smashing Records

June 19, 2020June 19, 2020

Is $2 trillion on the horizon for investment grade supply?

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5 Comments on The US Corporate Bond Market Just Keeps Smashing Records

Why Some Stock Bulls Are Excited About Yield-Curve Control

June 19, 2020

“While it’s impossible to isolate the impact, bulls note…”

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2 Comments on Why Some Stock Bulls Are Excited About Yield-Curve Control

‘Long Way To Go, Short Time To Get There’: China Will Attempt The Impossible With Farm Purchases

June 19, 2020June 19, 2020

“We’ve got a long way to go and a short time to get there…”

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12 Comments on ‘Long Way To Go, Short Time To Get There’: China Will Attempt The Impossible With Farm Purchases

Howard Marks Is Humbled By Rally. Sort Of. But Not Really.

June 18, 2020June 18, 2020

“…the odds aren’t in investors’ favor”.

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5 Comments on Howard Marks Is Humbled By Rally. Sort Of. But Not Really.

SCOTUS, POTUS, Infrastructure And A Warning From Bridgewater

June 18, 2020June 19, 2020

“…some companies will die or their shares will devalue along the way”.

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6 Comments on SCOTUS, POTUS, Infrastructure And A Warning From Bridgewater

Albert Edwards Has Been Right For A Long Time. But His Fans Have Kept Everyone From Realizing It.

June 18, 2020June 18, 2020

A misunderstood bear and underrated economic thinker.

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4 Comments on Albert Edwards Has Been Right For A Long Time. But His Fans Have Kept Everyone From Realizing It.

Why Nomura’s Charlie McElligott Sees Potential For A Short-Term Market Pullback

June 18, 2020June 18, 2020

“…a meaningfully larger drop-off”.

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Bad News. US Jobless Claims Have (Basically) Stopped Falling. But Hope Floats In Philly

June 18, 2020June 18, 2020

More conflicting signals from the world’s largest economy.

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7 Comments on Bad News. US Jobless Claims Have (Basically) Stopped Falling. But Hope Floats In Philly

‘These Are Our Dark Times’

June 18, 2020June 18, 2020

Around the world in 800 words, as the BOE tops up QE, Australia’s labor market stumbles and New Zealand’s economy implodes.

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1 Comment on ‘These Are Our Dark Times’

As Beijing ‘Contains’ Virus Outbreak, Markets Warily Eye Trump-Xi Dynamic Amid ‘Book Of Bolton’ Furor

June 18, 2020June 18, 2020

“Lies and fake stories”.

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2 Comments on As Beijing ‘Contains’ Virus Outbreak, Markets Warily Eye Trump-Xi Dynamic Amid ‘Book Of Bolton’ Furor

Jeremy Grantham Has Seen Enough. Calls US Stocks ‘4th Real McCoy Bubble Of My Career’

June 17, 2020June 17, 2020

“Crazy stuff”.

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11 Comments on Jeremy Grantham Has Seen Enough. Calls US Stocks ‘4th Real McCoy Bubble Of My Career’

‘I Would Print Trump’s Exact Words But…’ Trump Asked Xi For Help In Election, Bolton Says

June 17, 2020October 12, 2021

“He stressed the importance of farmers”.

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8 Comments on ‘I Would Print Trump’s Exact Words But…’ Trump Asked Xi For Help In Election, Bolton Says

‘Nobody Believed People Would Buy Garbage’: Hertz Reimagines What’s Possible In The Age Of Robinhood

June 17, 2020June 17, 2020

“…someone is going to be left without a seat”.

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8 Comments on ‘Nobody Believed People Would Buy Garbage’: Hertz Reimagines What’s Possible In The Age Of Robinhood

Nobody Say ‘Second Wave’

June 17, 2020June 17, 2020

It’s probably just semantics at this point.

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10 Comments on Nobody Say ‘Second Wave’

It’s The Klonopin, Pat. (Let’s Talk About The Fed’s Corporate Bond-Buying)

June 17, 2020June 17, 2020

An anecdote.

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19 Comments on It’s The Klonopin, Pat. (Let’s Talk About The Fed’s Corporate Bond-Buying)

Bewildered.

June 17, 2020June 17, 2020

Of “absurd” behavior and ongoing “cross currents”.

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4 Comments on Bewildered.

A Harley Bassman Encore: ‘Rumpelstiltskin At The Fed’

June 16, 2020June 16, 2020

“As a reminder, there are only two avenues out of a debt crisis – default or inflate”.

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6 Comments on A Harley Bassman Encore: ‘Rumpelstiltskin At The Fed’

‘Sell Everything To Them And Let Them Deal With It’

June 16, 2020June 17, 2020

The “day-to-day focus really swings wildly”.

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10 Comments on ‘Sell Everything To Them And Let Them Deal With It’

Tug Of War.

June 16, 2020June 16, 2020

Half full or half empty?

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2 Comments on Tug Of War.

Jerome Powell Is Very Worried About ‘Widening Gaps In Economic Well-Being’

June 16, 2020

“The burden of the downturn has not fallen equally on all Americans.”

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9 Comments on Jerome Powell Is Very Worried About ‘Widening Gaps In Economic Well-Being’

Nomura’s McElligott: Shorts ‘Mangled’ In ‘Risk-On Panic’

June 16, 2020June 16, 2020

And yet, remember that all of this comes with an important sequencing caveat.

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‘Fragile, Neurotic Optimism’ As Cash Levels ‘Collapse’ Into Most Overvalued Stock Market Since 1998

June 16, 2020June 16, 2020

A tale of “growth expectations jumping, cash levels collapsing, and risk appetites surging”…

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5 Comments on ‘Fragile, Neurotic Optimism’ As Cash Levels ‘Collapse’ Into Most Overvalued Stock Market Since 1998

US Retail Sales Double Up Projections, Surge Most On Record In Boon To Recovery Trade

June 16, 2020June 16, 2020

These numbers will work for a market keen to pounce on any sign of good news.

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3 Comments on US Retail Sales Double Up Projections, Surge Most On Record In Boon To Recovery Trade

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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