Inflation Heat Check And The Three-Digit Hike Tail Risk
Like shoppers waiting anxiously for a monitor in the checkout line to tally the damage
Searching For Bulls In A Desolate Wasteland
Do nosebleed levels on the most widely-cited measure of bond volatility presage a counter-trend rally
Predictions About The Future
With earnings season just days away in the US, it’s not necessarily this quarter’s results
Mr. Musk Terminates The Merger
Elon Musk doesn’t want Twitter anymore. Maybe he never did. We’ll never know. Frankly, I’d
Math Problems
“It ain’t over ’til the Fed lady sings,” BofA’s Michael Hartnett wrote, employing a somewhat
Hot Jobs Report Leaves Fed Locked In On 75
The US economy added far more jobs than expected in June, the government’s hotly-anticipated monthly
Japan’s Dark Day
The world isn’t getting any safer. Nor its people any less disturbed, apparently. In America,
Asynchronous Wars And The Technology Of Killing
This vulnerability defines a new phase of warfare: The freezing and seizing of assets by
Humans: When Progress Isn’t Progress
I find it useful, refreshing even, to take a step back from time to time.
Mortgage Rates Fall Most Since 2008, But Affordability Worst Since 80s
Good news: Mortgage rates fell dramatically last week. Amid a steep decline in US yields,
An Out-Of-Consensus Prediction
It’s too early to worry about jobless claims, but not too early to pay attention
Goodbye Boris
Boris Johnson agreed to resign as UK Prime Minister Thursday, following a string of departures
Mea Culpa Minutes
Minutes of the Fed’s June policy meeting, released on Wednesday, skewed hawkish. That’s not terribly
Beware Acute Downgrade Risk As Profit Reckoning Looms
Hopeless. That’s how I’d characterize forward earnings estimates headed into Q2 reporting season in the
It All ‘Points To Stagflation’: PMI Headlines Belie Somber Reality
The all-important US services sector held up in June, with caveats. On the heels of
US Labor Market Remains Hopelessly Distorted, Data Shows
US job openings were lower on the last business day of May, closely-watched data out
Pink Elephants And Collapsing Commodities
Summer days tend to run together, but there’s enough in the way of idiosyncratic news
Bill Ackman Takes Lead In Redefining ‘Recession’
For months, I’ve suggested the only way for the US economy to avoid a recession
‘Grizzly Bear’ Has One Question: ‘Is It Done Going Down?’
“The question is whether it’s done going down,” Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, who Bloomberg hyperbolically
‘Not A Lot To Cling To’
Risk sentiment faltered and the euro slipped to a two-decade low Tuesday, as recession worries
China Tariff Rollback Is Too Little, Too Late For Inflation Fight
Desperate times, desperate measures. The Biden administration may soon announce targeted rollbacks of some US
Another Ominous Sign: Germany Logs First Trade Deficit Since 1991
Call it yet another sign of the times. And, perhaps, another ominous sign for the
Turkey Or Zimbabwe? Erdogan’s Inflation Crisis Spirals
Whenever you’re inclined to lament high inflation exacerbated by a legacy of too-loose monetary policy
US Jobs Market Takes Center Stage Amid Macro Angst
If the Fed’s goal is to engineer a reverse wealth effect by tightening financial conditions
This Bear Market Still Has Teeth
“Despite recession fears, S&P 500 consensus 2022 and 2023 EPS estimates have both been revised
‘A Real Emergency’: German Economic Collapse May Be Biggest Tail Risk
Although consensus is coalescing around the idea that the next shock to markets will come
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