Headline Retail Sales Beat Belies ‘Concerning’ Core Measures
US retail sales rose in August, but a cursory look under the hood suggested slower consumption. The 0.3% gain on the headline measure (figure below) defied expectations for a slight decline. The range of estimates, from 67 economists, was -0.5% to 0.6%. That said, all of the core measures came up short. The ex-autos print underwhelmed, while an unchanged control group print was likewise a disappointment. Consensus expected a 0.5% gain. There may be a "bad news is good news" argument in the con
5 thoughts on “Headline Retail Sales Beat Belies ‘Concerning’ Core Measures”
Every time I look on my bloomberg I see Larry Summers bloviating about inflation. Is there anyway to ask Bloomberg to spare me or at least not highlight his views so prominantly. It is getting tiring, and adds nothing to the discussion anymore.
Not likely, considering he’s (quite literally) a paid Bloomberg contributor.
Lower sales should eventually lead to lower prices. That would be good for ordinary Americans.
Maybe my memory is terrible, but I do not recall being in an economy struggling with inflation and likely recession wherein unemployment falls to 213,000. Definitely different forces pulling in different directions this time around.
If the market is pricing in an increase by the Fed of 100 basis points, won’t the market react positively when they do only 75?