When 50-50 Is 100

One, among many, critical dynamics that most market participants either don't understand or don't fully appreciate, is how market pricing can become a self-fulfilling prophecy vis-à-vis Fed policy. As market pricing begins to lean further in the direction of a given Fed outcome, the odds of that outcome materializing increase. That's because Fed policy isn't totally detached from markets. How could it be? It's the price of money. We've seen this time and again over the years, but usually in t

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