Cut Calculus
The US curve disinversion looks to have some staying power. The 2s10s turned positive Wednesday
1-To-1: US Labor Market Nears Normalization Milestone
Job openings across the world’s largest economy dropped to the lowest since January of 2021
What If Generative AI Isn’t The Revolution Nvidia Says It Is?
Jensen Huang lost $9.8 billion on paper in six hours this week. Don’t worry: He
Another VIX Dealer Convexity Event: What Really Happened On Wall Street Tuesday
If you’re wondering what, precisely, happened to US equities on Tuesday — where “precisely” means
Nvidia’s Daily Market Cap Swings Border On Farce
I’ve said it again and again since 2020, but I find myself compelled to reiterate
Return Of The Growth Scare
The growth scare’s back. Wall Street stumbled (hard) out of the gate at the beginning
Don’t Expect Additional Big Stock Gains, Mike Wilson Warns
Guess who isn’t bullish? “We see limited upside at the index level on a six- to
America’s Factory Recession Rolls On
The first of this week’s top-tier US macro data came up short. A month on
Historic US-Japan Wage ‘Crossover’ Tips More Market Turbulence, Albert Edwards Says
If you had to make the case against investor complacency and you could only use
Chaos Entrepreneurs
There’s a bull market in political polarization. In turn, the political center — “the establishment,”
No Prisoners
Three of the six Israeli hostages who were discovered Saturday in a tunnel under Rafah
A Long Bond Overshoot And ‘Extreme Fed Front-Running’
Bonds are — self-evidently — among the best hedges for an economic hard landing, but
It All Comes Down To One US Jobs Report
If you ask highly-paid forecasters, the US economy probably added 165,000 jobs in August. That’s
China’s Economic Woes Mount As Party Dithers
The Chinese economy’s a mess. I’ve run out of academic ways to say as much.
‘The Better 40’
Is 60/40 well and truly dead? I doubt it. First of all, 60/40’s a religion.
Traders Eye S&P’s Worst Month As Curtain Closes On Wild August
In with a roar, out with a whimper. That was August. A month that began
Fed Gets More Good Inflation News. Saving Rate Slips Below 3%
Consumer price growth on the Fed’s preferred metrics was benign last month, data released ahead
‘Government And Friends’
One bank sees recession canaries in the US jobs data. And I don’t mean the
Warren Buffett Has Enough Cash To Buy Every Share Of Stock Held By Black America
Warren Buffett was in the news this week for the only reason Warren Buffett’s ever
The Profits Are Fine
Earlier this week, I suggested US equities would have a hard time rising without Nvidia.
Did US Housing Just Reach A Tipping Point?
Even if I were inclined to positive spin — and I’m obviously not — I’d
Poor People Cited As Dollar General Plunges Most Ever
Poor people get blamed a lot for a lot in America. Including for their own
Have Jobs, Will Spend
If you came into Thursday’s US economic data looking for evidence of additional labor market
Nvidia Beats, But Huang’s Revolution Faces Impossibly High Bar
“Hopper demand remains strong, and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible,” Jensen Huang beamed, rhapsodizing
Big Numbers, Hard Landings
Big numbers. (“Loud noises!”) Market participants were focused on big numbers ahead of… well, ahead
US Home Down Payments Soar To Record. Mortgage Rates Fall Again
Mortgages. Get ’em while they’re hot. Err, “cheap.” Financing costs for half-million dollar human self-storage
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