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Featured

Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Should’ve Bought The Damn Dip

August 15, 2024August 16, 2024

Guess you should’ve bought the dip. Who knew, right? Even absent the myriad structural factors

Read More

10 Comments on Should’ve Bought The Damn Dip

China’s Screwed

August 15, 2024August 17, 2024

China’s mired in an intractable economic malaise. You’ve heard that how often from me? This

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5 Comments on China’s Screwed

US Builders Leaned Heavily On Incentives Ahead Of Mortgage Rate Plunge

August 15, 2024August 16, 2024

Given the sharp decline in financing costs witnessed in recent weeks, you might expect homebuilders

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Leave a Comment on US Builders Leaned Heavily On Incentives Ahead Of Mortgage Rate Plunge

US Recession Postponed Again As Retail Sales Soar, Jobless Claims Drop

August 15, 2024August 16, 2024

Consumerism! It’s a helluva thing. America’s legions of incorrigible spendthrifts didn’t get the recession memo

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2 Comments on US Recession Postponed Again As Retail Sales Soar, Jobless Claims Drop

The Enduring Paradox Of A Bull Case Built On Rate Cut Hype

August 14, 2024

An equity rally built on expectations for aggressive rate cuts is inherently paradoxical. If you’re

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1 Comment on The Enduring Paradox Of A Bull Case Built On Rate Cut Hype

Meanwhile, In Ukraine News…

August 14, 2024August 15, 2024

Ukraine invaded Russia the other day which is — you know — funny. That’s not

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17 Comments on Meanwhile, In Ukraine News…

US Inflation Report Benign Again, With Shelter The Only Blight

August 14, 2024August 15, 2024

US inflation was benign again in July, crucial figures released on Wednesday showed. Core price

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1 Comment on US Inflation Report Benign Again, With Shelter The Only Blight

Refis Reheat In Otherwise Frozen US Housing Market

August 14, 2024August 15, 2024

US housing (all housing, everywhere, now that you mention it) is sensitive to rates. By

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1 Comment on Refis Reheat In Otherwise Frozen US Housing Market

UK Services Inflation Ebbs Sharply In Good News For BoE

August 14, 2024August 15, 2024

The Bank of England will cut rates twice more this year, according to traders, who

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Investors Implore Powell’s Fed: Go Big Or Else

August 13, 2024August 14, 2024

Did they cancel the recession again? Or are market participants just confident in the Fed’s

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3 Comments on Investors Implore Powell’s Fed: Go Big Or Else

Macro Volte-Face Triggered Black Swan Drawdown For CTAs

August 13, 2024August 13, 2024

“Trend following had a tough time,” SocGen’s Sandrine Ungari gently remarked, in a recent note.

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What Caused The August Vol Shock

August 13, 2024August 14, 2024

Whether or not fund managers registered a drop in soft landing odds in recent days,

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1 Comment on What Caused The August Vol Shock

Services Index In US Wholesale Price Report Drops Most In 16 Months

August 13, 2024August 14, 2024

Good news! Producer price growth in the US was cooler than expected last month, data

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4 Comments on Services Index In US Wholesale Price Report Drops Most In 16 Months

Soft Landing Buy-In Soars To Record Among Pros Despite Recession Panic

August 13, 2024August 14, 2024

Professional investor sentiment took a hit from recent market disarray, but faith in a soft

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‘Priced For Perfection’ Stocks Suddenly Awake To Rates Reality, Mike Wilson Cautions

August 12, 2024August 13, 2024

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson is… cautious. That’s one word to describe his disposition towards US

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2 Comments on ‘Priced For Perfection’ Stocks Suddenly Awake To Rates Reality, Mike Wilson Cautions

Wild Dislocation Enabled Historic VIX Spike

August 12, 2024August 12, 2024

Today’s the one-week anniversary of the largest VIX spike on record. How are you celebrating?

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Bonds Are Your Hedge Again. But Caveat Emptor…

August 12, 2024August 13, 2024

Bonds! They’re your hedge again. On August 3 — so, a day after the Sahm

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Foreign Investment In China Drops Most Ever As Xi’s Pitch Falls Flat

August 12, 2024August 13, 2024

Xi Jinping wants foreign investors and corporates to believe China’s still a good place to

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2 Comments on Foreign Investment In China Drops Most Ever As Xi’s Pitch Falls Flat

Please God, No Stagflation

August 11, 2024August 13, 2024

Markets head into the new week still stressed after one of the more turbulent stretches

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Will Wall Street’s Vol Shock Spill Over Into Corporate Credit?

August 11, 2024August 12, 2024

Credit’s fine. For now. The chaos in front-end US rates that accompanied a triggered Sahm

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2 Comments on Will Wall Street’s Vol Shock Spill Over Into Corporate Credit?

‘Corr 1’ Shock Won’t Soon Be Forgotten, One Bank Says

August 10, 2024August 12, 2024

Was the extreme market turbulence witnessed over the past several sessions the product of a

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3 Comments on ‘Corr 1’ Shock Won’t Soon Be Forgotten, One Bank Says

Bull Still Standing

August 9, 2024August 12, 2024

We know systematics — pejoratively “the machines,” accurately, and in order of speed, CTAs, target

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1 Comment on Bull Still Standing

Wall Street ‘Bossing’ Powell Into Big Cuts With Prime Rate At Nosebleed Levels

August 9, 2024August 11, 2024

Long and variable lags. Monetary policy works on long and variable lags. Impolitely: You hike

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5 Comments on Wall Street ‘Bossing’ Powell Into Big Cuts With Prime Rate At Nosebleed Levels

Market Shock Fails To Trigger Stock Outflows. History Says They’re Coming

August 9, 2024August 11, 2024

If you were wondering whether recent fireworks across markets triggered outflows from equities, the answer’s

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3 Comments on Market Shock Fails To Trigger Stock Outflows. History Says They’re Coming

Cash! Money Fund AUM Nears $6.2 Trillion In VaR Shock Safety Bid

August 8, 2024

We reached the point of diminishing returns months ago on stating and restating the same

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Leave a Comment on Cash! Money Fund AUM Nears $6.2 Trillion In VaR Shock Safety Bid

About That Recession…

August 8, 2024August 10, 2024

I suppose this goes without saying, but just in case: You’re not going to be

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2 Comments on About That Recession…

Another Day, Another Bad Treasury Auction

August 8, 2024

I suppose it’s not surprising that Thursday’s long bond sale went poorly. After all, Wednesday’s

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1 Comment on Another Day, Another Bad Treasury Auction

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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