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Goldman Officially Raises S&P Target
Goldman's David Kostin has seen enough.
I won't bury the lede: The bank's new official house call o
Market has to get through Israel-Iran, 3Q earnings, and the election. I think any dips from the former will be bought, and while I expect some of the Megas to underwhelm, overall looking for the hurdle to be vaulted. Election and aftermath . . . need to think that through.
In 2025, the last of the pandemic aid will run out. Government employment, at least, may reverse course. Some election outcomes would be stimulus-unfriendly.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/post-pandemic-america-has-more-teachers-than-it-can-afford
Would you be willing to share? Which Mega do you expect to underperform and why?
I need to review my notes and recent data pts. My recollec from 2Q was that I thought GOOG and MSFT looked likely to report meaningfully slower growth in 2H, with MSFT having the better chance to distract investors with AI-promises while GOOG labors with the overhang of the third and most dangerous antitrust trial.
*Above not investment advice, just HGPT hallucination”
Still, thanks! 🙂
Post election, the potential for ‘austerity’ (if Harris win, ofc) – at least compared to the recent past – ought to be an unpleasant shock to the markets – unless the policies of abundance deliver lots of early dividends…
Harris + swept Congress: fiscal stimulus continues or increases, possible standoff with bond vigilantes if they still exist.
Harris + gridlock Congress: fiscal stimulus cut via endless budget standoffs, continuing resolutions, Treasury default brinksmanship, etc.
Trump + gridlock Congress: unpredictable (and extrajudicial) executive action. Not sure about fiscal stimulus. Inflationary policies and FOMC takeover.
Trump + swept Congress: end of times, banana republic, fascist state, whatever you can imagine, it is possible.
I would give the Democrats more credit than you do but good summary and lol at the last line.