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Featured

Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Money Fund Assets Scale New Peak Amid $100 Billion Month

August 22, 2024

US money market funds took in another $25 billion in the week to August 21,

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A Big Source Of Systematic Stock-Buying Is Back. Will It Matter?

August 22, 2024August 23, 2024

This’ll seem a bit repetitious to some readers, but it’s worth another mention: Vol control

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2 Comments on A Big Source Of Systematic Stock-Buying Is Back. Will It Matter?

Nobody’s Selling, Nobody’s Buying In America’s Frigid Resale Housing Market

August 22, 2024August 23, 2024

Sales of previously-owned US homes rose for the first time in months, but the pace

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23 Comments on Nobody’s Selling, Nobody’s Buying In America’s Frigid Resale Housing Market

Fed’s Soft Landing Story ‘Less Convincing’ Under The Surface, Uneven PMIs Suggest

August 22, 2024August 23, 2024

US services sector activity expanded at a solid pace while manufacturing contracted early this month,

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13 Comments on Fed’s Soft Landing Story ‘Less Convincing’ Under The Surface, Uneven PMIs Suggest

US Jobless Claims Unmoved Amid Labor Market Quandary

August 22, 2024August 23, 2024

US jobless claims were a non-event. Again. If you were looking for evidence to shift

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4 Comments on US Jobless Claims Unmoved Amid Labor Market Quandary

Is ‘The Whole Economic Edifice’ About To ‘Fall Apart’?

August 21, 2024August 22, 2024

There’s something a bit strange about suggesting market participants are nervous. After all, we’ve just

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5 Comments on Is ‘The Whole Economic Edifice’ About To ‘Fall Apart’?

‘Several’ Fed Officials Would’ve Supported A Rate Cut Last Month: FOMC Minutes

August 21, 2024August 22, 2024

“Many participants noted that reported payroll gains might be overstated,” an account of the July

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4 Comments on ‘Several’ Fed Officials Would’ve Supported A Rate Cut Last Month: FOMC Minutes

US Jobs Growth Hit With Huge Downward Revision

August 21, 2024August 22, 2024

US jobs growth was likely far weaker than originally estimated in the year to March,

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9 Comments on US Jobs Growth Hit With Huge Downward Revision

Mortgaging Millions

August 21, 2024August 22, 2024

The rate America’s legions of frustrated renters would hypothetically pay to finance homes that’ve shot

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6 Comments on Mortgaging Millions

Are Stocks Primed For A New ‘FOMO Chase Melt-Up’?

August 20, 2024August 20, 2024

Wall Street snapped its best win streak of 2024 on Tuesday, when the S&P slipped

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1 Comment on Are Stocks Primed For A New ‘FOMO Chase Melt-Up’?

Are Betting Markets Mispricing The September FOMC Meeting?

August 20, 2024August 21, 2024

The size of next month’s rate cut from the Fed depends almost entirely on the

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1 Comment on Are Betting Markets Mispricing The September FOMC Meeting?

The Mechanics Of A History-Making Market Turnaround

August 20, 2024August 21, 2024

By now, regular readers are well apprised of the extent to which the August “whiplash”

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4 Comments on The Mechanics Of A History-Making Market Turnaround

China’s Property Crisis Reaches Tipping Point As Xi Green-Lights Price Wars

August 20, 2024August 21, 2024

China’s letting the market determine the clearing price for new homes. That’s a new idea

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4 Comments on China’s Property Crisis Reaches Tipping Point As Xi Green-Lights Price Wars

‘Straight Cash Homie’

August 19, 2024August 19, 2024

As anyone who keeps tabs on markets is aware, inflows to cash are largely unabated.

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1 Comment on ‘Straight Cash Homie’

Sequencing S&P 6,000

August 19, 2024August 21, 2024

There’s a tactical opportunity to buy the dip between now and the September FOMC meeting.

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Goldman’s Rubner Sees Dip-Buying Window In ‘RINO’ US Equities

August 19, 2024August 20, 2024

“This is a no rules market,” Goldman’s Scott Rubner said Monday, writing from West Palm

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‘Bad Is Bad,’ ‘Good Is Good,’ Mike Wilson Says

August 19, 2024August 20, 2024

Bad news became bad news early this month. Maybe you noticed. In a world where

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2 Comments on ‘Bad Is Bad,’ ‘Good Is Good,’ Mike Wilson Says

Aftershocks: Crowded US Tech Stocks, Yen Still Pose Risk To Markets

August 19, 2024August 20, 2024

Is it over? The (growth) scare and the (vol) shock, I mean. In some respects

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1 Comment on Aftershocks: Crowded US Tech Stocks, Yen Still Pose Risk To Markets

What Usually Happens When Fund Managers Are This Worried About Fed Policy

August 18, 2024August 18, 2024

Pros are more convinced than ever that monetary policy’s too restrictive. That was one of

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1 Comment on What Usually Happens When Fund Managers Are This Worried About Fed Policy

JPMorgan Identifies ‘Point Of No Return’ For Stocks After Selloff ‘Dress Rehearsal’

August 18, 2024August 19, 2024

When should you throw in the towel on the equity rally? Not on August 5,

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2 Comments on JPMorgan Identifies ‘Point Of No Return’ For Stocks After Selloff ‘Dress Rehearsal’

There’s One Helluva Disconnect Buried In Wall Street’s 2025 Profit Forecasts

August 18, 2024August 19, 2024

A few days ago, I revisited “the enduring paradox” of an equities bull case built

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3 Comments on There’s One Helluva Disconnect Buried In Wall Street’s 2025 Profit Forecasts

Eyes On Jackson Hole As Powell To Confirm First Fed Cut

August 18, 2024August 19, 2024

Jackson Hole’s on deck. That’s pretty much all you need to know about the third

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2 Comments on Eyes On Jackson Hole As Powell To Confirm First Fed Cut

Behind The Scenes Of August’s ‘Wall Street Whiplash’

August 17, 2024August 19, 2024

Everybody’s astounded by the rapidity of the market recovery from the August 2-August 5 growth

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12 Comments on Behind The Scenes Of August’s ‘Wall Street Whiplash’

What Panic? Global Equities Run Inflow Streak To 17 Weeks

August 16, 2024August 16, 2024

Historically, August is a challenging month for equity flows. But here we are two weeks

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Mood Swings

August 16, 2024August 18, 2024

US consumer moods improved marginally early this month, apparently in response to Joe Biden’s decision

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8 Comments on Mood Swings

US Home Builders Just Stopped Building

August 16, 2024August 18, 2024

Blame the weather if you like, but the pace of single-family home construction in America

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4 Comments on US Home Builders Just Stopped Building

Why ‘Many Fed Cuts Are A-Comin” Recession Or Not

August 16, 2024August 18, 2024

“Green shoots!” BofA’s Michael Hartnett sees them. Exclamation point and all. In the latest installment

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3 Comments on Why ‘Many Fed Cuts Are A-Comin” Recession Or Not

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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