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Prepping The Pause
If nobody else gets it, Raphael Bostic does.
Four hours or so after BLS data showed core inflation
USD forex and US Treasuries have shot up over the past 3 weeks, they seem to be fully aware.
Equities have not reacted except to talk both sides of the equation: heads (rates up) I win – tales (rates down) you lose. It’s all win-win for equities regardless of the direction of all other financial assets. Doubt this dynamic that can persist.
If anything, I think we’ll see more realized vol even if it’s still within the channel we’ve seen the past 3 months (above the August low). VVIX, VIX and VIX futures are pointing this out for us.