If nobody else gets it, Raphael Bostic does.

Four hours or so after BLS data showed core inflation in the US was warmer again last month, Bostic opened the door to a pause at the November FOMC meeting.

If you’ve been around a while, you know how this goes: It always starts with a seemingly innocuous remark from a voter.

“This choppiness to me is along the lines of maybe we should take a pause in November,” Bostic mused, in an interview with none other than Nick Timiraos, The Wall Street Journal‘s resident “Fed whisperer.” The “choppiness” to which Bostic referred was the CPI release.

Bostic’s interview wasn’t on my Fed speaker schedule for this week. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t scheduled. But… well, I’ll just leave that there, and politely note that when the Fed wants to send up a smoke signal, Timiraos is their media go-to.

As discussed at some length in “Hurricanes And Suicide Missions,” the case for a pause in November is very strong, in my view. The labor market data between now and next month’s meeting is going to be “janky,” to employ Bostic’s adjective, which means that even if the Committee gets a weak October jobs report (or more elevated jobless claims prints like Thursday’s), it’ll be hard to say whether the data reflects the kind of additional softening Jerome Powell says the Fed wants no part of, or whether it’s just… well, or whether it’s just the weather.

I can’t emphasize this enough: The data since the September FOMC meeting all suggests the Fed should pause. Bostic supported the half-point cut, but his dot reflected just 25bps of additional easing for the balance of the year. As he told Timiraos, that by definition means he’s “open to not moving at one of the last two meetings.”

Again, this should feel very familiar: It starts with an ostensibly innocuous remark which isn’t actually innocuous, or at least has the potential to be viewed in hindsight as meaningful.

Markets noticed on Thursday. The dollar jumped immediately to a session high as soon as Bostic’s November pause trial balloon crossed on the terminal in all caps.

As the figure shows, the move quickly faded. But I’d submit that Bostic’s remark shouldn’t be readily dismissed as an off-the-cuff, throwaway line. It was a warning shot. Or that’s how I read it, anyway.

Of course, the Fed’s bias is still to cut 25bps next month. But in the event of a warm PPI print on Friday and a firm read on retail sales for September, look out: The writing on the wall will get bigger in a hurry ahead of the advance read on Q3 GDP and, crucially, the first look at the Employment Cost Index for last quarter, due at the end of this month.

(Far) too many market participants and Wall Street economists failed to read the tea leaves last month, when Timiraos and Bill Dudley all but erected an animated, flashing “It’s gonna be 50!” billboard alongside the highway. I’d gently counsel traders and sell-side research teams not to ignore the November pause winks, particularly if they get more deliberate from here.

Bostic on Thursday told Timiraos the Fed can “be patient,” “wait” and “let things play out a little longer.” I can assure you Michelle Bowman agrees, and the September FOMC minutes, released on Wednesday, suggested at least a few other officials do too.

It’s never been obvious to me why traders and analysts seem so convinced that if the Fed does skip one of 2024’s remaining two meetings, it’ll be the December gathering. If you ask me, November’s the “natural” skip, and December the “natural” cut.