A tweet taxonomy…
Category: Trump
Want To Understand Markets? Watch This Currency Pair
The yen is gauge of safe-haven flows, it reflects the plight of exporters in a world increasingly driven by FX vol, and it is in many ways a kind of running, real-time referendum on the market’s conviction regarding the Trump administration’s commitment to a weaker dollar.
Monday Night Humor (“White Men, Assemble!”)
“One pick at a time”…
One Bank Sees “Further Clear-Out” For Dollar Longs
The dollar is the story of the day so far and the trade is basically all about what comes out of Trump’s mouth or the mouths of his inner circle. In other words, it looks like anything they say is going to be seen as verbal intervention in FX markets whether they intend it or not.
Daily Kickstart (Dollar Slumps After Bombastic Trump Speech)
If it was a weaker dollar Trump wanted he’s certainly gotten it in the days following his bombastic inauguration speech which was seen by the rest of the world (with the possible exception of Marine Le Pen) as a de facto declaration of war.
China Clowns America; Says Trump Will “Set Fire” To His Own House, Rest Of World
“Undoubtedly, the Trump administration will be igniting many ‘fires’ on its front door and around the world. Let’s wait and see when it will be China’s turn.”
Stocks Bore Me, But People Sure Do Love A Good Bullish Thesis
One thing to note at the outset: the idea that because piling fiscal stimulus atop an overheating economy is likely to drive inflation and therefore people will buy stocks, has a major flaw. Namely that if most of the “benefit” from fiscal stimulus goes to inflation and not growth, then it’s exceedingly likely that you’ll get a poor growth-inflation outcome (i.e. stagflation).
Sunday Humor (“Facts”)
“You’re saying it’s a falsehood, and Sean Spicer, our press secretary, gave alternative facts to that.â€
Chart Check (Theory Vs. Reality)
For the history buffs…
10 Black Swans
The amusing thing about this (to me anyway) is that it is to a certain extent emblematic of markets’ overwhelming tendency to misprice the tails. These pieces almost read like a guide to the unthinkable – “here’s what happens if everything just goes to complete sh*t”…
“Tweet Risk” Is Now Officially Part Of The Wall Street Lexicon
Analysts are now forced to take Trump’s tweets into account when commenting on the prospects for specific stocks. That, in turn, has led to the contention that idiosyncratic risk will almost invariably rise during Trump’s presidency. It’s thus very possible that Donald Trump could single-handedly bring about a shift in inter-market correlations.
“We The People”… A Message For Donald Trump
A subtle reminder on inauguration day.
Chart Check (How Will Stocks Close On Inauguration Day?)
Dow 20,000 by 4 p.m. EST?
Yours Truly On Inauguration Eve…
On Wednesday night I had a terrible dream. Let me tell you all about it…
Trump: 3 Scenarios For Markets
Wondering how markets will perform under Trump? Of course you are. Since no one is sure
Daily Kickstart (The Day The Earth Stood Still)
The Ringling Bros. may have pulled up the stakes for good, but the circus is in town today in Washington, complete with all of the usual attractions including an orange elephant, who at 12 noon will “trump”et to an awestruck crowd.
Inauguration Day: Last Minute Analysis From Wall Street
“Investors appear to be struggling to reconcile the policies of President-Elect Donald Trump with those of candidate Donald Trump”…
Peak Trump?
“Trump’s election is the news equivalent of a financial crisis.”
Black Swans Everywhere: Hedge Fund Positions By Standard Deviation
There’s been no shortage of commentary both in these pages and elsewhere about just how
The Trend May Bend, “But Will It Break”?
“Trends go through life cycles. There’s more to them than just a big move that happens because some market theme becomes all the rage.”
Where Liberals Screwed Up
Perhaps trying to frighten voters away from the populist cause by referencing dire economic consequences isn’t the best way to go about things when there are plenty of other common sense arguments for preserving a progressive agenda and for cultivating multiculturalism.
Russia Prints Commemorative Trump Coin (Video Included)
“One side of the coins feature an image of Mr. Trump’s face, while the other shows the Statue of Liberty and has an inscription of the ‘In Trump we trust’ slogan.”
Chart Check (The Most Important Chart In The World)
What happens to stocks now?…
Tuesday Humor (“Heroes”)
“I don’t like heroes. The concept of heroes is never great”…
Daily Kickstart (King Trump Tanks King Dollar)
It’s “too complicated.” I imagine that probably sums up Donald Trump’s feelings about a lot
Here’s Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Message To The World
“There is no point in blaming economic globalization for the world’s problems because that is simply not the case.”
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