10Y S&P 500 Trump

Stocks Bore Me, But People Sure Do Love A Good Bullish Thesis

One thing to note at the outset: the idea that because piling fiscal stimulus atop an overheating economy is likely to drive inflation and therefore people will buy stocks, has a major flaw. Namely that if most of the "benefit" from fiscal stimulus goes to inflation and not growth, then it's exceedingly likely that you'll get a poor growth-inflation outcome (i.e. stagflation).

One thing to note at the outset: the idea that because piling fiscal stimulus atop an overheating economy is likely to drive inflation and therefore people will buy stocks, has a major flaw. Namely that if most of the "benefit" from fiscal stimulus goes to inflation and not growth, then it's exceedingly likely that you'll get a poor growth-inflation outcome (i.e. stagflation).
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